New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview
AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Jets +10.0 | Total Points: 43.5
With their overall record of 7-5, the Jets are currently ranked 7th in the AFC. Heading into week 14, the Jets will look to get back in the win column, as they are coming off a 27-22 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. New York entered the game as 3.0 point underdogs on the spread. With their combined 49 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 44.
Heading into this week’s matchup against New York, the Bills have won 3 straight games and have a current record of 9-3. Buffalo will be looking to add another win to their resume, as they picked up a division win over the New England Patriots. The Bills won by a score of 24-10. Besides winning straight up, the Bills also came home with an ATS win as the -4.0 point favorites. The team’s combined scoring of 34 points fell below the posted betting line of 44.
Jets vs Bills History
The last time these two teams played came back in week 9, when the Jets picked up a 20-17 win over the Bills. A key aspect to the team’s win was their ability to run the ball. Overall, the team finished with 174 yards on the ground. Michael Carter led the group with 76 yards on 12 attempts. Not only did the Jets win straight up, but they also covered the spread as 10.5-point underdogs. The two team’s offense’s combined to score 37 points. This figure was below the over-under betting line of 46.0.
When looking back on the last 3 head-to-head matchups between New York and Buffalo, the Bills hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in a convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 14 points. The last 3 times that the Bills have hosted New York, they have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, Buffalo holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 3-2 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 40, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.
Notable Injuries
New York Jets
- Lamarcus Joyner (Hip) Questionable
- Duane Brown (Shoulder) Questionable
- Corey Davis (Illness) Questionable
- George Fant (Illness) Questionable
- D.J. Reed (Illness) Questionable
- Ashtyn Davis (Hamstring) Questionable
- Micheal Clemons (Illness) Questionable
Buffalo Bills
- Reggie Gilliam (Ankle) Questionable
- Cam Lewis (Forearm) Probable
- Josh Allen (Elbow) Probable
- Dion Dawkins (Ankle) Questionable
- Matt Milano (Knee) Questionable
- Ike Boettger (Achilles) Questionable
- Mitch Morse (Elbow) Questionable
- Jordan Phillips (Shoulder) Questionable
- David Quessenberry (Ankle) Questionable
- Rodger Saffold (Knee) Questionable
Keys To Victory: New York Jets
Through 12 games, the Jets offense is ranked 18th in the league at 21.0 points per contest. This year, the Jets have an average scoring differential of 2.42 points per contest. The matchup between the Jets’ passing attack and the Bills secondary will be a matchup to keep an eye on, as both units rank near the league average in several statistical categories. So far, New York offense is averaging 224.1 yards per game through the air. For the year, New York quarterback Mike White has thrown for a total of 684 passing yards on a passer rating of 89.53. In week 14, White is a candidate for a strong performance vs a secondary that can be taken advantage of through the air. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Garrett Wilson, who comes into the game with 790 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 41.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.
So far, the ground game has not been a huge part of the Jets’ offense as their current production of 115.1 yards per game places them near the NFL average. This week could be a struggle for the unit, as Bills has been tough to run against this season. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Breece Hall, who is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. Through 7 games, he has rushed for a total of 463 yards on the ground.
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
Quarterback Josh Allen leads the league’s 3rd ranked scoring offense into Buffalo, averaging 274.5 passing yards per game. Buffalo will continue turning to the pass on offense, as they throw the ball an average of 37.5 times per contest. Overall, Allen has put together a passer rating of 96.01 while throwing for 3406 yards. The team’s top receiver Stefon Diggs has caught 71.1% of the passes thrown his way and has accumulated 1202 receiving yards.
The Bills’ offense has been one of the most successful teams on the ground, averaging 136.33 yards per game through the run. This production has come while ranking 13th in attempts per contest. Devin Singletary heads into the game ranked 24th among running backs in total rushing yards (603).
Betting Trends
- New York is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- New York is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- New York is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- New York is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
The line for this game is surprisingly 10 points in favor of the Bills, which seems too high for a divisional AFC East battle. The Jets are going to keep this close. We like the Bills to win and Jets to cover the spread.
See all our Week 14 picks here.
