Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings Pick and Preview
Non Conference NFL Matchups
Point Spread: Vikings -5 | Total Points: 46.5
Heading into week 9, the Colts sit at 4-4, putting them 8th in our power rankings with a 63.8% chance of making the playoffs. They are 2nd in the AFC South, but their 1-3 division record has them with just a 15.1% chance of winning the division. Indianapolis is 3-1 at home but 1-3 on the road, including a 23-20 loss to the Texans in week 8. Despite the loss, they covered the spread as 5-point underdogs.
Indy is 7-1 against the spread this season, including a 6-game ATS winning streak. They are 5-0 as underdogs and 2-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-5, with the under hitting in three straight games. Their games have averaged 43.4 points, compared to an average line of 43.7.
After starting the season with five straight wins, the Vikings have now dropped two in a row, including a 30-20 loss to the Rams in week 8. Minnesota was favored by 2.5 points but couldn’t get the win, bringing their record to 5-2. They currently sit 3rd in the NFC North and 6th in the conference standings. Our projections give them a 67.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.6% chance of winning the division.
The Vikings rank 11th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 9. Their average scoring margin this season is +7.3 points, and they are 5-2 against the spread. They have failed to cover in two straight games, including their week 7 loss to the Lions. Minnesota’s O/U record is 3-4, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings History
The Colts and Vikings did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Colts have a record of 2-1. The Colts also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 50 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- Indianapolis has a 1-4 record in their last five road games. In this stretch, they averaged 18 points per game while allowing 24. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
- In their last three home games, Minnesota has averaged 26 points per game while allowing 21. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Colts have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-0.
- Looking back on the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Vikings have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
Notable Injuries
Indianapolis Colts
- Jaylon Carlies – Ankle (Out)
- Trevor Denbow – Knee (Out)
- Wesley French – Ankle (Out)
- Jelani Woods – Toe (Out)
- Daniel Scott – Achilles (Out)
- JuJu Brents – Knee (Out)
- Ryan Coll – Undisclosed (Out)
- Will Fries – Tibia (Out)
- Juwann Winfree – Undisclosed (Out)
- Samson Ebukam – Achilles (Out)
- Tyquan Lewis – Elbow (Out)
- Genard Avery – Foot (Questionable)
Minnesota Vikings
- T.J. Hockenson – Knee (acl) (mcl) (Questionable)
- Dalton Risner – Back (Questionable)
- Blake Cashman – Toe (Questionable)
- Christian Darrisaw – Knee (Out)
- Akayleb Evans – Hip (Questionable)
- Jordan Kunaszyk – Undisclosed (Out)
- Mekhi Blackmon – Knee (Out)
- Nick Muse – Hand (Out)
- J.J. McCarthy – Knee (Out)
- NaJee Thompson – Knee (Out)
- Jeremy Flax – Undisclosed (Out)
- Gabriel Murphy – Undisclosed (Out)
Keys To Victory: Indianapolis Colts
Heading into week 9, the Colts are 21st in our offensive power rankings. They rank 19th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 16th in yards per game (326). Indianapolis is 20th in passing yards per game (198) and 19th in passing attempts, with 30.2 per game. They rank 11th in rushing yards per game (128) on 27 attempts per game. The Colts are 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37.6% success rate, and 17th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 9th in red zone attempts. They have been strong early in games, ranking 5th in the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.
Anthony Richardson struggled in week 8, posting a passer rating of 48 after completing 10 of 32 passes for 175 yards, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. He was also sacked 5 times. Jonathan Taylor led the Colts’ rushing attack with 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, while Josh Downs had 4 receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown.
In their 23-20 loss to the Texans, the Colts’ defense allowed 267 passing yards on 25 completions. They held Houston to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down and recorded two sacks. The Colts’ run defense was more effective, allowing just 96 yards on 29 attempts (3.3 yards per attempt) and they won the tackles for loss differential.
Despite this, the Colts gave up a key touchdown through the air and allowed the Texans to finish with 363 total yards in the game. Indianapolis also allowed the Texans to complete 67.6% of their passes.
Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings
Currently, the Vikings are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.9, and lead the league in first-quarter scoring. Minnesota is 16th in passing yards per game (213.6) and 22nd in rushing yards per game (111.4). They rank 13th in 3rd-down conversions and 11th in red zone efficiency, converting 50% of their opportunities.
Sam Darnold posted a passer rating of 128 in week 8, throwing for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18/25 passing. Justin Jefferson had 8 catches for 115 yards, and Aaron Jones rushed for 58 yards on 19 carries. Minnesota scored 14 points in the first quarter against the Rams but managed only 6 points in the final three quarters.
In their 30-20 loss to the Rams, the Vikings’ defense gave up four passing touchdowns and allowed a completion rate of 73.5%. They gave up 279 passing yards and failed to record a sack. The Rams’ success on third down was notable, as they converted 40% of their third downs.
On the ground, the Vikings held the Rams to 107 yards on 32 attempts, averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. Despite this, Minnesota’s inability to slow down the Rams’ passing game was a significant factor in their most recent defeat.
Betting Trends
- In their last three road games, Indianapolis has averaged 24 points per game while allowing 25. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 3-0.
- Through their last five home contests, the Vikings offense has averaged 24 points per game while allowing an average of 24. Minnesota posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
- Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Colts have a straight up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Vikings have gone 5-4-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.
Prediction
- Indianapolis Colts 30 – Minnesota Vikings 20
