NFC Conference Matchup
Point Spread: 49ers -7.5 | Total Points: 51.5
Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the 49ers, the Lions have an above .500 record at 12-5. In their most recent matchup, the Lions secured a win against the Buccaneers with a final score of 31-23. Against the spread, the Lions’ 8-point win was enough to cover as 6.5-point favorites. The over/under line for the game was set at 49.5 points, and the final combined total surpassed it with 54 points.
Heading into the game, the 49ers are the 1st ranked team in the NFC with a record of 12-5. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 11-2. In their previous game, the 49ers defeated the Packers with a final score of 24-21. On the point spread, the 49ers were favored by 10.5 against the Packers. Even though they won by three it was not enough to cover. The under bettors were successful in the 49ers’ most recent game, with a combined total of 45 points. The game’s betting line was 50.5.
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers History
Last season, the Lions and 49ers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the 49ers have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread, the Lions went 3-0. The over/under record in these matchups was 3-0 on an average of 59 points per game.
- Detroit has a 1-2 record in their last three road games. In this stretch, they averaged 20 points per game while allowing 24. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Through their last ten home games, San Francisco has an ATS record of just 6-3-1. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 28 points per game.
- Detroit has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
- Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the 49ers have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.
Notable Injuries
Detroit Lions
- Khalil Dorsey – Illness (Out)
- Julian Okwara – Arm (Out)
- David Montgomery – Thigh (Out)
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson – Pectoral (Out)
- Emmanuel Moseley – Knee/hamstring (Out)
- Taylor Decker – Ankle (Out)
- Nate Sudfeld – Knee (Out)
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai – Knee (Out)
- Shane Zylstra – Knee (Out)
- Jameson Williams – Suspension (Out)
- James Houston – Ankle (Out)
- Josh Paschal – Knee (Out)
- Kerby Joseph – Hip (Out)
- Hendon Hooker – Knee (Out)
San Francisco 49ers
- Brandon Aiyuk – Shoulder (Out)
- Danny Gray – Shoulder (Out)
- Samuel Womack III – Knee (Out)
- Ambry Thomas – Knee (Out)
- Robert Beal Jr. – Hamstring (Out)
- Cameron Latu – Knee (Out)
- Darrell Luter Jr. – Knee (Out)
Keys To Victory: Detroit Lions
Compared to other NFL teams, the Lions offense has performed well this year, averaging 27.2 points per game (5th). Detroit currently ranks 10th in passing attempts and has an average of 7.3 yards per attempt (4). With 259.6 passing yards per game, they are positioned 3rd in the league. A key aspect of the team’s strong offensive play has been their ability to run the ball. This year, the Lions are near the top of the league in both attempts and yards per game. Currently the team is averaging 131.8 yards per game on the ground.
Keys To Victory: San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy and the NFL’s 3rd head to San Francisco looking to take care of business, as they are the -7.5 point favorites on the spread. For the season, Purdy is averaging 267 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 5th among quarterbacks. Purdy comes in with a passer rating of 113.0 and is averaging 13.9 yards per completion. Brandon Aiyuk has been targeted 105 times this season and has caught 75 passes. He comes into the game with a total of 1342 receiving yards. With an average of 138.9 rushing yards per game, the 49ers currently rank 4th in the NFL. This figure is based on 29.1 rushing attempts (7th).
Betting Trends
- Across their last three road contests, Detroit has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2 while averaging 20 points per game.
- Across the 49er’s last ten home games, the team averaged 28 points per game while allowing 17. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 6-3-1 while going 7-3 straight-up.
- As the betting underdog, the Lions have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their straight up record was 3-2.
- Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the 49ers have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.
Prediction
- San Francisco 49ers 28 – Detroit Lions 23
