Week 4: Lions vs. Packers Pick and Preview
NFC North Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Lions -1.5 | Total Points: 46
Coming into to this week’s NFC matchup vs the Packers, the Lions have an above .500 record at 2-1. The Lions clinched a win in their most recent contest against the Falcons, finishing with a final score of 20-6. Since they were favored by 3 against the Falcons, the Lions secured an ATS victory. Going into the game vs. Atlanta, the over/under line was 47. With a combined total of 26 points, the under-hit in this game.
Coming into to this week’s NFC matchup vs. the Lions, the Packers have an above .500 record at 2-1. The Packers hosted the Saints in their last game, picking up an 18-17 win. Besides their outright victory, the Packers also covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs. The over/under line for their most recent game against New Orleans was 41.5. Finishing with a combined total of 35 points, the under hit in this matchup.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers History
Head-to-head, the Lions and Packers faced off two times with the Lions going 2-0. Against the spread, the Lions went 2-0 while the over/under record in these games was 0-2 on an average of 30 points per game. Offensively, the Packers averaged 340 yards per game in the head-to-head matchups compared to the Lions at 288.5 yards.
The Lions and Packers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Lions have a record of 3-0. The Lions also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 42 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Notable Injuries
Detroit Lions
- Hendon Hooker – Knee (Out)
- Frank Ragnow – Toe (Probable)
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson – Pectoral (Out)
- Emmanuel Moseley – Knee/hamstring (Questionable)
- Jason Cabinda – Knee (Questionable)
- David Montgomery – Thigh (Questionable)
- Nate Sudfeld – Knee (Out)
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai – Knee (Questionable)
- Taylor Decker – Ankle (Questionable)
- Khalil Dorsey – Illness (Out)
- Julian Okwara – Arm (Out)
- Jonah Jackson – Thigh (Questionable)
- Matt Nelson – Ankle (Doubtful)
- Shane Zylstra – Knee (Out)
- Josh Paschal – Knee (Out)
- Kerby Joseph – Hip (Questionable)
- Jameson Williams – Suspension (Out)
- James Houston – Ankle (Out)
Green Bay Packers
- Zach Tom – Knee (Questionable)
- Zayne Anderson – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Christian Watson – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Luke Tenuta – Ankle (Out)
- Tyler Davis – Knee (Out)
- Eric Stokes – Foot (Out)
- De’Vondre Campbell – Ankle (Questionable)
- David Bakhtiari – Knee (Questionable)
- Aaron Jones – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Elgton Jenkins – Knee (mcl) (Questionable)
- Rashan Gary – Knee (Questionable)
- Jaire Alexander – Back (Questionable)
- Carrington Valentine – Biceps (Questionable)
Keys To Victory: Detroit Lions
The Lions hold the 11th position in the NFL with 111.7 rushing yards per game. This average has come on an average of 30.7 rushing attempts (6th). Detroit currently ranks 11th in passing attempts and has an average of 7.9 yards per attempt (2). With 269.7 passing yards per game, they are positioned 7th in the league. A key to the team’s offensive success is their effectiveness on the ground. On the season, the Detroit offense is 19th in rush yards per attempt. This figure has led to an average of 111.7 yards per game.
Keys To Victory: Green Bay Packers
In what is projected to be a tightly contested game, Jordan Love will be looking to put together a strong performance for a Green Bay offense ranked 7th in points per game. Love is averaging 218 passing yards per game through the air for the season. This figure has him sitting 16th among quarterbacks. Love comes in with a passer rating of 94.8 and is averaging 12.8 yards per completion. Against the Lions, the team will look to get receiver Jayden Reed involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 6.7 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 148. So far, the Packers have run the ball an average of 26.3 times per game and currently hold the 23rd spot in rushing yards. On a per-attempt basis, they average 3.5 yards, which is 22nd.
Betting Trends
- Detroit has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 23 points per game while allowing 21. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 4-1.
- When looking at their past ten home matchups, Green Bay has an ATS record of 6-4, averaging 21 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
- Through their last three games as the underdog, the Packers have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight-up mark of 2-1.
- The Lions have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
Prediction
- Detroit Lions 21 – Green Bay Packers 20
