Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview
AFC North Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Ravens -6 | Total Points: 53
With a 4-5 record, the Bengals currently sit 3rd in the AFC North and 15th in our power rankings. This gives them a 35.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 3.1% chance of winning the division. Cincinnati is 3-1 on the road but just 1-4 at home. After losing two straight, the Bengals bounced back in week 9 with a 41-24 win over the Raiders. They were 7.5-point favorites and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 5-4.
So far, the over has hit in six of the Bengals’ nine games, including two straight. Their games have averaged 51.4 points, while the O/U line has averaged 45.4. Against the Raiders, the teams combined for 65 points, going over the 44-point line.
After a week 8 loss to the Browns, the Ravens bounced back with a 41-10 win over the Broncos in week 9, improving their record to 6-3. Baltimore entered the game as 9-point favorites and easily covered the spread, while the 51 combined points went over the 46.5-point line. The Ravens have now gone over the total in five straight games, and their O/U record this season is 8-1.
Heading into week 10, our power rankings have the Ravens 2nd in the NFL, and they have a 96.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 63.4% chance of winning the AFC North. Baltimore is 5-3-1 against the spread this season, with a +7.1 scoring margin. They are 5-2-1 ATS as favorites and 0-1 as underdogs.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens History
- In their last ten games away from home, the Bengals have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 24 points per game in these contests.
- In their last ten games at home, the Ravens have a straight up record of 8-2 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 28 points per game in these contests.
- Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Bengals have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
- The Ravens have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread.
Notable Injuries
Cincinnati Bengals
- Trent Brown – Knee (Out)
- Orlando Brown Jr. – Knee/fibula (Questionable)
- B.J. Hill – Rib (Questionable)
- Tee Higgins – Quad (Doubtful)
- Zack Moss – Neck (Out)
- Dax Hill – Knee (Out)
- Jaxson Kirkland – Bicep (Out)
- Chris Evans – Leg (Out)
- D’Ante Smith – Knee (Out)
- Cam Sample – Achilles (Out)
- Charlie Jones – Groin (Doubtful)
- Erick All Jr. – Knee (Out)
- Lance Robinson – Undisclosed (Out)
Baltimore Ravens
- Brent Urban – Concussion (Out)
- Michael Pierce – Calf (Out)
- Deonte Harty – Knee (Out)
- Trayvon Mullen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Isaiah Likely – Hamstring (Out)
- Jalyn Armour-Davis – Knee (Doubtful)
- Keaton Mitchell – Knee (Questionable)
- Christian Matthew – Undisclosed (Out)
- Rasheen Ali – Ankle (Questionable)
- T.J. Tampa – Ankle (Out)
- Owen Wright – Foot (Out)
- Malik Hamm – Knee (Out)
- Deion Jennings – Undisclosed (Out)
- Qadir Ismail – Undisclosed (Out)
Keys To Victory: Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow threw for 251 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 9, completing 27 of 39 passes with one interception against the Raiders. Burrow has improved his passer rating in each of the last three games, going from 84 in week 8 to 115 in week 9. Chase Brown led the rushing attack with 27 carries for 120 yards, while Mike Gesicki had 5 catches for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bengals scored in every quarter, including 14 points in the 3rd and 10 in the 4th.
Heading into week 10, the Bengals rank 5th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in points per game, averaging 26.2, and 17th in yards per game with 330.6. Cincinnati ranks 7th in passing yards per game and 27th in rushing. They are 3rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a success rate of 46.9%.
In their most recent game, the Bengals’ defense allowed just 157 passing yards on 21 completions by the Raiders. The Bengals’ defense also came away with five sacks and held the Raiders to 38.5% on third down. They also allowed just 60 rushing yards on 21 attempts in their 41-24 win over the Raiders.
Cincinnati’s defensive unit was tough against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per attempt. Despite giving up one passing touchdown, the Bengals’ defense was disruptive up front, winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in the game.
Keys To Victory: Baltimore Ravens
Heading into week 10, the Ravens are averaging 31.4 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL, and they lead the league with 445.9 passing yards per game. Despite ranking 22nd in passing attempts, Baltimore is 3rd in passing yards per game, with Lamar Jackson throwing for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns on 16/19 passing in week 9. Before that, he had a 289-yard performance in week 8 and a 5-touchdown game in week 7.
On the ground, the Ravens rank 3rd in rushing attempts and lead the NFL with 191.9 rushing yards per game. Derrick Henry rushed for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 carries in week 9. Baltimore ranks 5th in 3rd-down conversions and is 29th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 2nd in red zone attempts.
In their 41-10 win over the Broncos, the Ravens’ defense allowed just 197 passing yards and came away with one interception. They also recorded four sacks and held Denver to a 58.8% completion percentage. Baltimore’s defense was tough on third downs, allowing just a 42.9% conversion rate.
The Ravens did give up 122 rushing yards on 30 attempts, but overall, they held the Broncos to just 10 points. Baltimore also had four more QB hits and one more tackle for loss than Denver.
Betting Trends
- The Bengals’ last ten road games saw them average 24 points per game while allowing 23. Their record against the spread in these contests was 7-3, while they went 6-4 straight-up.
- Baltimore has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 35 points per game while allowing 32. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Cincinnati’s ATS record as the underdog in its previous ten games is 4-6, while its straight-up record is 3-7.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Ravens have a straight up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-3-1.
Prediction
- Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 26
