Thanksgiving Day NFL Matchup
Point Spread: Lions +9.5 | Total Points: 54.5
The Bills will kick off week 12 with an above .500 record of 7-3, placing them 5th in the AFC. Buffalo is looking to tack on another victory, as they defeated Cleveland Browns by a score of 31-23 in week 11. By games end, the two teams matched the point spread, as the Bills were -8 point favorites. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 54 points, which surpassed the betting line of 50.
This week, the Lions travel to take on the Bills in a non-conference matchup. Heading into the game, the Lions have won 3 straight games and have a current record of 4-6. Last week, the Lions picked up a win in the NFC after taking down the New York Giants by a score of 31-18. Going into last week’s matchup, Detroit was 3.0 point underdogs on the spread. By the end of the game, the teams combined for 49 points, surpassing the betting line of 44.
Bills vs Lions History
In the 2021-2022 season, there were no games between the Bills and Lions. Across the previous 3 matchups between Detroit and Buffalo, the Bills have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been close, with Buffalo averaging 15 points and Detroit at 13.
The last 3 times that the Lions have hosted Buffalo, they have a record of 0-3. When looking at past performance vs the spread in this series, neither team has had much of an edge, with each team at 2-2-1.
Notable Injuries
Buffalo Bills
- Marquez Stevenson (Foot) Questionable
- Greg Rousseau (Ankle) Questionable
- A.J. Epenesa (Ankle) Questionable
- Josh Allen (Elbow) Questionable
- Tremaine Edmunds (Groin) Questionable
- Mitch Morse (Ankle/elbow) Questionable
- David Quessenberry (Ankle) Probable
Detroit Lions
- Charles Harris (Groin) Questionable
- Josh Reynolds (Back) Questionable
- Romeo Okwara (Achilles) Questionable
- DJ Chark (Ankle) Questionable
- Frank Ragnow (Foot) Questionable
- Evan Brown (Ankle) Questionable
- Jeff Okudah (Concussion) Questionable
- Jonah Jackson (Illness) Questionable
- Josh Paschal (Knee) Questionable
- Jameson Williams (Torn Acl) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
For the season, the Buffalo offense is averaging 28.1 points per contest, placing them 2nd in the NFL. So far, the team’s strong offensive play has led to the team making up for 62.0% of their game’s scoring. Look for the Bills to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Lions defense that is ranked just 28th in yards per game vs the pass. At the quarterback position, Josh Allen has completed 64.7% of his passes, leading to a total of 2930 yards. In addition, his passer rating of 96.85 ranks well compared to other QBs. Allen could add to these numbers with a big performance vs Detroit. Going into the game, the team’s leader in receiving yards is Stefon Diggs, who has caught 73.1% of the balls thrown his way for a total of 1033 yards.
On the ground, the Bills should be able to put in yet another strong performance, as they are currently the 9th-ranked team in rush yards per game and face off vs a defense that is vulnerable up front. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Devin Singletary, who is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. Through 10 games, he has rushed for a total of 480 yards on the ground.
Keys To Victory: Detroit Lions
Quarterback Jared Goff will try to lead the Lions to a win despite being 9.5-point underdogs at home. As a team, Detroit is averaging 25.0 points per game, placing them 8th in the NFL. Overall, Goff is ranked 14th among quarterbacks in yards per game at 244.2. This figure has come on a completion percentage of 63.9%. In his last game, he finished with a passer rating of 83.01 while throwing for 165 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted 78 times and has caught 71.8% of the passes thrown his way. He comes into the game with a total of 594 receiving yards.
Key to the team’s offensive attack is their ability to run the ball, as they are currently averaging 132.8 yards per game on the ground. So far, their current production in the running game is right in line with what is expected based on the level of competition. On the season, the team’s opponents have allowed an average of 126.97 yards per game on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Buffalo is 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
- Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
Prediction
This has been a strange week for the Bills, as they just played in Detriot on Sunday due to the snow back home. We’re confident that Josh Allen get the win on Thanksgiving, but the spread is too big. We like the Lions to cover.
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