Money Where Your Mouth Is
There’s no way week 5 of the NFL season is already here. We have teams on byes already! Where has the time gone? Luckily, we are in the green thus far, so I’d love to keep it rolling as the season’s second quarter kicks off this week.
We got so close to another touchdown scorer’s parlay hitting! That would have been back-to-back weeks, rats. Chase Brown and Brian Robinson got the job done, but my hunch on Darnell Mooney came up short last week. There was one last chance as the clock wound down in the 4th quarter, but he and Cousins were a touch off, and it was overthrown. Let’s see where our season total sits after the first four weeks.
Season Long Tracking
- Straight props: 11-5
- Anytime TD: 5-5
- Player Prop Parlays: 1-3
Straight props are doing rather well for us. Love to see that. We got back to even on our touchdown scorers so hopefully we keep it rolling with those. The player prop parlays have not been clicking. Oh well. We will hit one soon! It’s time to jump into week 5 and find out which bets are winning us money!
Ja’Marr Chase Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)
Since the Bengals got the offense clicking in week 3, Ja’Marr Chase has been putting up solid numbers. He has averaged roughly 100 yards the past two weeks and scored 3 total touchdowns. Ja’Marr faces a weak secondary (the Ravens are bottom 5 in passing yards allowed per game) and has a red-hot QB looking to take down a division rival. I will be putting my money on Ja’Marr this week. If you need more convincing, he averages 84 yards a game against the Ravens in his career. That should be all you need!
Caleb Williams Over 216.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
Transparency is important and I want to be clear as day that this one is a gut call. I don’t think it’s an erratic choice. Here is why. The “numbers” wouldn’t point you in the direction of making this pick I’d say, but I get the feeling this game will wind up much like the Bears/Colts game where Caleb throws A LOT. He had 52 passing attempts in that game two weeks ago and I doubt Shane Waldron would hesitate to do it again. Plus, the Panthers secondary is beatable with someone as talented as Caleb Williams so I’ll take the chance we get a good performance out of him. Bear Down!
James Conner ALT 80+ rushing/receiving yards (+100 FanDuel)
I have yet to use a rushing + receiving line in these articles but when I was making my selections, something drew me to James Conner. I don’t think he will necessarily have the most efficient day running the ball, so I was looking at his line of 61.5 rushing yards. I considered taking his under and calling it a day. He has had his struggles against the 49ers. When I say struggles, I mean not the best day on the ground maybe like 50 or so yards. Something like that would cash. However, the Cardinals are more competitive this year and if they were to take an early lead, chances are Conner is getting a good bulk of touches to chew the clock.
So rather than misreading the game flow, I decided to use Conner’s alternate line of rushing/receiving yards so that we know James Conner will be involved regardless of how the game goes. I also love that it is currently plus odds as I write this. Fingers crossed, James Conner has a good game!
Derrick Henry Over 18.5 rushing attempts (-108 FanDuel)
I’m kind of surprised this one is at 18.5 and also valued at -108. I guess Vegas sees this game as being different for the Ravens than the past two weeks because King Henry had 24 and 25 carries in those two games. Whether the Ravens are winning or losing, I don’t see them abandoning the run game with Henry, so I will take the shot and bet on his over 18.5 rushing attempts this week. I usually slap 2 units on these picks, so I’ll run it back with 2 units on the King!
Anytime Touchdowns
James Cook +115
It’s pretty straightforward here: he’s getting twice as many rushing opportunities as any other running back (I know, Josh Allen, blah, blah, blah), and I like that both of his rushing touchdowns have come within the 10 yard-line. What was missing from the Bills in week 4? Scoring opportunities. James Cook should see scoring chances this week; plenty of touchdowns will be scored in this one. At least, Vegas thinks so. The Bills/Texans game is the third-highest point total as I’m writing this. Sign me up for a James Cook touchdown this week!
Antonio Gibson +260
I don’t think Jerod Mayo is in love with the production of Rhamondre Stevenson in the Patriots’ offense. That’s not to blame Rhamondre, outside of the fumbles, but I think as a new head coach, Mayo is willing to try anything to see if it gives the offense a boost. Mayo was quoted saying they spoke to Rhamondre about ball security so if Antonio Gibson sees more touches this week, there’s a really good chance he finds pay dirt. Plus, the Dolphins are a disaster and just lost one of their best defensive players (Jaelan Phillips) to an ACL injury on Monday night. I really like Gibson’s value this week.
Brock Bowers +310
I went back and forth on a few names but this week I wanted to take a shot on a tight end touchdown scorer. I am willing to admit that this is a bold choice. The Broncos are top 3 in the NFL when it comes to passing yards given up on a per-game basis. They are stout. That might deter some folks, but not me. Brock Bowers has yet to score his first touchdown and this feels like the perfect spot for Brock to catch a goal-line touchdown. On top of that, Michael Mayer has missed practice for personal reasons this week with no timetable on his return so Brock may not come off the field with Davante Adams out. C’mon Gardner…get the ball to Brock!
