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NFL Picks and Predictions Week 5

By Robert Hayek

Posted on October 3, 2024

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 5

I killed it last week. I won my Pickem League, and I conquered these picks. It would’ve been even better had I not ignored my gut and picked the Indianapolis Colts instead of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Oh well. I was mostly on the nose with my moneyline picked and missed the spread by a few points in the other game. The over/under got better, and I did a solid job of making those selections. Check out my records below.

Moneyline: 6-1 (19-9 overall)
ATS: 5-2 (13-15 overall)
O/U: 4-3 (11-17 overall)

Some undefeated teams fell this week. As predicted, the Seattle Seahawks finally lost (I got the spread wrong as they were no match for the Lions). Even the Buffalo Bills dropped their first game spectacularly in front of a frenzied crowd at M&T Bank Stadium. Yet, some teams, like the Jacksonville Jaguars, are still winless.

Our power rankings show just how delicate the balance is. Some teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs, are still at the top (though that might not last that long if they keep losing players). The Minnesota Vikings are second, but no one really believes they’re going to stay there (or are in denial). But enough of that: it’s time to pick some winners.

Our NFL odds also show you the various spreads from across your favorite sportsbooks. Some of them are a little different. But they’re mainly the same. I picked some stats from team rankings to show some of the analysis variations between the teams in this article. It may help you understand the matchups more.

JETS (+2.5) VS. VIKINGS (O/U 40.5)

The Jets are 21st in points per game.
The Vikings are fourth in points allowed per game.
The Vikings are fourth in points per game.
The Jets are fifth in points allowed per game.
The Jets lead the head-to-head series 8-4.
The Vikings have won three in a row.
The Vikings defeated the Jets 27-22 in the last showdown on December 4, 2022, at US Bank Stadium.
The Jets are 1-1 in London games.
The Vikings are 3-0 in London games.
Aaron Rodgers is 17-11-1 against the Vikings in his career.

The Jets lost 10-9 to the Denver Broncos last weekend at the Meadowlands. It was an anemic performance for the Jets’ offense. They could not run the ball, and Aaron Rodgers did not have time to throw good passes, going 24 for 42 with 225 yards and no touchdowns while also taking five sacks. The offensive line has been the biggest problem for the Jets, as they could not even open up lanes for Breece Hall, who rushed 10 times for four yards. Things will get even tougher this weekend across the pond, as they will face a ferocious Vikings defensive line who will look to make things rough for the running backs. Additionally, they will want to make things challenging for an old rival, as Rodgers faces the Vikings for the first time since he became a Jet.

The Vikings overcame a tough challenge last weekend, overcoming the Green Bay Packers 31-29 at Lambeau Field. However, they nearly collapsed down the stretch as Jordan Love led a ferocious comeback. Something to consider: this defense can wear down. But it did not matter last weekend against the Packers. Significantly, Sam Darnold went 20 for 28 with 275 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Aaron Jones dominated his former team, with 22 touches on the ground for 93 yards and four grabs for 46 yards. Of course, Justin Jefferson also was amazing, with six catches for 85 yards. The Vikings will play their toughest defense yet, as the Jets will offer a significant challenge, especially against the pass.

There is a strong temptation to pick the Jets simply because it’s a neutral game, and there is no home-field advantage. While it would not surprise me to see the Jets come out of nowhere and steal this game in London, it is difficult to pick anyone, aside from the best teams in the league, with the task of handing the Vikings their first loss. The Vikings win a rain-filled game across the pond.

Prediction: Vikings 22, Jets 17

Picks: Vikings -2.5, U 40.5

BILLS (-1) VS. TEXANS (47.5)

The Bills are second in points per game.
The Texans are 22nd in points allowed per game.
The Texans are tied for 17th in points per game.
The Bills are 12th in points allowed per game.
The Texans lead the head-to-head series 6-5.
The Bills won the last battle, blowing out the Texans 40-0 on October 3, 2021, at Highmark Stadium.
The Texans are 4-1 against the Bills at home.
The Texans have won four in a row against the Bills at NRG Stadium.

The Bills crumbled in front of the world last weekend, losing 35-10 to the Baltimore Ravens in front of a packed crowd at M&T Bank Stadium. Unfortunately, the offense just crumbled. There was no positive movement, and Josh Allen could not get anything going. He finished with just 180 yards passing and no touchdowns while also running five times for 21 yards. Also, James Cook was ineffective on the ground, rushing nine times for 39 yards. The Bills also went 3 for 13 on third-down conversions and turned the ball over once. Alarmingly, the offensive line allowed Josh Allen to get sacked three times. It won’t get any easier this week as the Bills face the Texans, who are attempting to cement their own legacy.

The Texans got past the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-20, barely winning this game thanks to a touchdown pass by CJ Stroud with 18 seconds left. Stroud was exceptional, going 27 for 40 with 345 yards and two touchdowns. Nico Collins was electric, with 12 catches for 151 yards and one score. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs had five catches for 69 yards and also ran in for a touchdown. It was not a perfect game for the Texans. Yet, they overcame any adversity and beat a divisional rival by making the plays they needed when the time came.

This was always going to be a tough matchup for the Bills. Ultimately, it does not get any tougher than a high-octane offense firing on all cylinders in front of the home crowd. Allen will make it a game, but Stroud will come out the winner in a shootout.

Prediction: Texans 34, Bills 31

Picks: Texans +1, O 47.5

RAVENS (-2.5) VS. BENGALS (O/U 50.5)

The Ravens are fifth in points per game.
The Bengals are 27th in points allowed per game.
The Bengals are 27th in points per game.
The Ravens are 19th in points allowed per game.
The Ravens lead the head-t0-head series 30-27.
The Ravens swept the season series last season, including a 27-24 win in Cincinnati.
The Ravens are 6-4 over the last 10 games between the teams.
The Bengals are 3-2 in the last five games at Paul Brown Stadium
The Ravens are 7-3 against the spread over the last 10 games against the Bengals.
Lamar Jackson is 8-2 against the Bengals.
Joe Burrow is 3-4 against the Ravens.

The Ravens are riding high after steamrolling the Bills on Sunday Night Football to bring their record to 2-2. Lamar Jackson was solid, going 13 for 18 with 156 yards passing and two touchdowns while also using the jets to go six times for 54 yards and a score. Of course, the star of this game was Derrick Henry, who rumbled 24 times for 199 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens ran all over the Bills with authority. Now, they plan on doing the same thing against the Bengals, who are once again attempting to climb out of an early-season hole.

The Bengals beat the Carolina Panthers 34-24 last weekend in Charlotte to finally secure their first win. Joe Burrow still was not perfect. Yet, he went 22 for 31 with 232 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Chase Brown was the lead runner, going 15 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Ja’Marr Chase had three catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Tee Higgins had six receptions for 60 yards on 10 targets. The Bengals get a significantly tougher challenge now with a team that recently had their number.

This will be a fantastic matchup. The Ravens are elite in every aspect of the game and could easily be 4-0 right now. Likewise, the Bengals could easily be 2-2 or 3-1 if something had bounced their way. This is the hardest game of the week to pick. However, Burrow is a man on a mission, and the Bengals will be desperate for another win. Being 1-4 would be disastrous for them. Therefore, expect Cincinnati to find some extra in the reserves and do enough to overcome Baltimore.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 24

Picks: Bengals -2.5, O 50.5

CARDINALS (+7) VS. 49ERS (49.5)

The Cardinals are 13th in points per game.
The 49ers are tied for 10th in points allowed per game.
The 49ers are eighth in points per game.
The Cardinals are 29th in points allowed per game.
The 49ers lead the head-to-head series 36-29.
The 49ers swept the season series, covering the spread in both games.
The 49ers have won four in a row in this series.
The 49ers are 7-3 overall against the Cardinals over the last 10 games.
The 49ers are 6-4 against the spread against the Cardinals over the last 10 games.
The 49ers are 3-2 over the last five home games against the Cardinals, with an average margin of 22 points over the past two home games.
Kyler Murray is 2-4 against the 49ers.

The Cardinals lost 42-14 to the Washington Commanders last weekend. Things started out competitively. But the train scattered off the rails in the second quarter, and the Cards kept digging themselves in a larger hole. Kyler Murray could not do much, as he went 16 for 22 with 142 yards and one touchdown while taking four sacks. Somehow, the Cards could not get much going, even with 18 touches, 104 yards, and one touchdown from James Conner. The Cardinals must bounce back quickly as they head to Santa Clara for a showdown with a rival that has dominated them recently.

The 49ers trounced the New England Patriots 30-13, effectively bouncing back from the collapse from the previous weekend. Fred Warner had a Pick-6, which helped set the pace for the 49ers to run away with this one. Brock Purdy had another solid game, going 15 for 27 with 288 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while taking just one sack. Jordan Mason was effective again, running 24 times for 123 yards and a score. Juwan Jennings was the leading receiver again, catching three passes for 88 yards. Now, the Niners will welcome the Cardinals into Levi Stadium and hope to move to 3-2 with a win.

The Cardinals can make this a close game. However, the only way to do that is to run the ball effectively and protect Murray. The Patriots could not do that last weekend, while the Rams did that well two weeks ago. The Niners are slowly getting healthier, with the exception of Christian McCaffrey. They have covered the spread the last three times. I expect it to happen again.

Prediction: 49ers 38, Cardinals 24

Picks: 49ers -7, O 49.5

PACKERS (-3) VS. RAMS (48.5)

The Packers are sixth in points per game.
The Rams are 31st in points allowed per game.
The Rams are tied for 22nd in points per game.
The Packers are 20th in points allowed per game.
The Packers lead the head-to-head series 50-47-2.
The Packers are 9-1 over the past 10 games against the Rams, including a playoff win in 2021.
The Rams defeated the Packers 29-27 in the last game played in Los Angeles on October 28, 2018.
The Packers are 10-0 against the spread over the last 10 games against the Rams.

The Packers came agonizingly close to rallying from a 28-7 deficit against the Vikings. Unfortunately, time ran out, and they could not complete the comeback. But it was still a good day (relatively) for Jordan Love, who went 32 for 54 with 389 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Josh Jacobs ran nine times for 51 yards. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed was phenomenal, with seven receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown. Dontayvion Wicks was a scoring machine, catching five passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Kraft got in on the fun, catching six passes for 53 yards and a touchdown. Now, the Packers will head to Southern California to face a bruised and battered Rams team that is looking to start racking up wins.

The Rams fell 24-18 to the Chicago Bears last weekend at Soldier Field. After an incredible comeback against the Niners the previous weekend, the offense fell flat this time. Matthew Stafford looked rattled, going 20 for 29 with 224 yards and one interception while taking three sacks. Yes, Kyren Williams was good again, with 19 rushes for 94 yards and a touchdown, but he could not even carry the Rams back. Stafford finally felt the effect of a really good pass defense, and his pass-catchers were simply not good. Things won’t get any easier this week as the Rams welcome the Packers into town.

Could desperation potentially cause the Rams to pull off the upset? Maybe. The oddsmakers seem to think the Rams will make this a close game. I do, too. However, I cannot pick against the Packers right now, especially while they have been relatively hot. The only way the Rams win this game is if they force turnovers. But their defense has so many leaks, and Love will take advantage of that.

Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 23

Picks: Packers -3, O 48.5

COWBOYS (+2.5) VS. STEELERS (O/U 44)

The Cowboys are tied for 11th in points per game.
The Steelers are second in points allowed per game.
The Steelers are tied for 22nd in points per game.
The Cowboys are tied for 27th in points allowed per game.
The Cowboys lead the head-to-head series 17-16 overall.
The teams have met three times in the Super Bowl.
The teams last met in 2020, with the Steelers edging out the Cowboys 24-19 at AT&T Stadium.
The Cowboys won 35-30 in the last time the teams played each other in Pittsburgh, which took place in 2016.

The Cowboys edged out the New York Giants 20-15 last week in an ugly Thursday Night Football game. It was as gritty as possible, with both offenses struggling at times. Dak Prescott still finished 22 for 27 with 221 yards and two touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb hauled in seven passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. The defense forced a turnover and sacked Daniel Jones once. They also held the Giants to 5 for 16 on third-down conversions. Now, the Cowboys play one of their historic rivals in an epic showdown on Sunday Night.

The Steelers lost their first game last weekend, 27-24 to the Indianapolis Colts, nearly rallying from a large deficit before just falling short. They were down 24-10 in the fourth quarter before Justin Fields led a furious comeback but could not complete the comeback. Fields went 22 for 34 with 312 yards and one touchdown while also rushing 10 times for 55 yards and two scores. The Steelers hope to bounce back as they face a banged-up Cowboys team.

This will probably be the best matchup of the week. Prescott is good, but he can get rattled, and the Cowboys don’t have much of a running game. Plus, they don’t even know if top pass rusher Micah Parsons will be available. Fields loves to run, and the Cowboys love to allow quarterbacks and running backs to run all over them. You can figure out where this is going.

Prediction: Steelers 20, Cowboys 16

Picks: Steelers -2.5, U 40

SAINTS (+5.5) VS. CHIEFS (43.5)

The Saints are first in points per game.
The Chiefs are seventh in points allowed per game.
The Chiefs are 14th in points per game.
The Saints are sixth in points allowed per game.
The Chiefs lead the head-to-head series 7-5.
The Chiefs have won three in a row against the Saints.
Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 on Monday Night Football.
Derek Carr is 7-4 on Monday Night Football.

The Saints lost 26-24 to the Atlanta Falcons last weekend on a last-second field goal by kicker Younghoe Koo. It was not a bad game for the Saints, as they played relatively well in competing with the Falcons on the road. Derek Carr went 28 for 36 with 239 yards but also threw an interception. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara rushed 19 times for 77 yards and a touchdown. Chris Olave was great, with eight catches for 87 yards. Likewise, Rashid Shaheed delivered with eight catches for 83 yards. Now, the Saints will face their toughest test as they head into Arrowhead to face the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Chiefs rallied from a 10-0 deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 17-10 last weekend in Southern California. Patrick Mahomes was efficient, going 19 for 29 with 245 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Kareem Hunt rushed 14 times for 69 yards. Additionally, Travis Kelce led the way with seven catches for 89 yards. The Chiefs lost Rashee Rice with a potential ACL tear. Therefore, others must carry the load as they host the Saints.

If you have been paying attention to the Chiefs, you will notice that they are not blowing anyone out of the water. They won their first game by an inch (or toe). Then, they beat the Bengals because of a pass interference call that put them in position to kick the game-winning goal. The Chiefs beat the Falcons because the referees missed a potential pass-interference call on Kansas City. Then, last week, the Chargers had an early lead, but the Chiefs battled back. I expect this to be just as close. While it would not be shocking to see the Saints pull out the win, the Chiefs have such a pedigree that it is hard to forecast.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Saints 17

Picks: Saints +5.5, U 43.5