MLB Player Props 9/27
The regular season officially ends on Sunday, which means this is the last set of regular season player props. The season was mostly a success, including Wednesday, when we went 2-1. Kevin Gausman pitched a decent game but did it without throwing strikeouts. He ultimately finished with 3 Ks, short of the 6 we needed. Most of the playoff teams have been solidified, but some seeding jostling is taking place. There is still some important baseball that needs to be played. Let’s take a look at what props will end this glorious regular season.
Pablo Lopez Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-105)
The Minnesota Twins are fighting for their playoff lives right now. That is something that seemed far-fetched a month ago when they had a firm spot in the AL Wild Card. However, they began to falter, while the Detroit Tigers soared to new heights. Now they are hanging on by a thread and need the Tigers or Royals to lose for the rest of the season. Tonight they face the Baltimore Orioles with Pablo Lopez on the bump.
The Orioles clinched their wild card spot last night after losing to the New York Yankees, who by winning took the AL East. The Orioles now have nothing to truly play for and might take it easy with some of their key contributors. The Twins need this game, while the Orioles can take a rest day. However, there is more to choosing this prop than the Twins’ desperation.
The Orioles, over the past 30 days, have been a mediocre team. They rank 20th in runs scored and AVG while placing 19th in SLG. That is a far cry from where they are in those stats for the entire season, which is in the top 10 in each of those categories.
Then there is Pablo Lopez who has pitched fairly well at home as of late. In four straight home starts, Lopez has not allowed more than 2 earned runs. This has been the theme all season for him, as his home ERA is at 3.64, while his road ERA is at 4.50. Lopez has all the makings to be an elite-caliber pitcher, but this season was somewhat of a struggle for the 28-year-old. Despite the struggles, I believe this is a must-win for the Twins and Lopez shoves against an Orioles team that is looking towards the playoffs.
Cal Quantrill Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (-120)
On Wednesday, we took a risk and went with Dylan Cease to allow more than 2.5 walks against the Los Angeles Dodgers. That prop ended up cashing out. Tonight we look to repeat that same success with the Dodgers and their patience at the plate. This does not bow well for someone like Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill has a bad tendency to walk batters. He has the 6th most walks allowed and is in the 18th percentile in BB%. Furthermore, he has played this Dodgers team three times this season and has eclipsed this over in two of those outings. In his last three outings alone, Quantrill has allowed at least 4 walks. He simply cannot locate his pitches and the Dodgers should exploit that issue.
The Dodgers are in the top 3 in BB% and have generated the second-most walks over the past 30 days. They are also still playing for home-field advantage for the NL and potentially the World Series. This series is still somewhat important to them, which means you should still expect their dominant lineup to play.
Quantrill has shown his flaws throughout the season and the Dodgers are ready to pounce. Over 2.5 walks seems like a tall task, but the matchup and stats back it up.
Sean Manaea 6+ Strikeouts (-165)
I was looking through all of the data for today and one thing caught my eye that I just wasn’t truly aware of over the past month. Sean Manaea has been striking out batters and going deep into games in a way that I would have never expected. Then you look at his numbers for the season and Manaea is having the best season of his career. All of this flew under the radar for me.
The strikeouts are the thing that caught my eye and that is why I decided to ride with that prop today. Manaea has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 starts. Furthermore, he has pitched at least 6.2 innings in 9 of those starts. The volume is there, which gives Manaea the chance to hit this number.
The New York Mets are in a tight NL Wild Card Race with the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks. Every game counts at this point and they know that. Luckily, they get to play a Milwaukee Brewers squad that is locked into the third seed in the NL. Their regular season is practically over, while the Mets are fighting for their playoff lives.
Over the past 15 days, the Brewers have the 9th-highest K% rate. They are probably not putting their best lineup out there as well, which gives Manaea a perfect matchup to give the Mets another step closer to the postseason.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
