NFL Picks and Predictions Week 4

Posted on September 27, 2024

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 4

This NFL season is weird. The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins, all playoff teams last season, are all 1-2. The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-3. Meanwhile, other teams like the Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Seattle Seahawks are surprisingly 3-0. Our Week 4 picks and predictions will attempt to make sense of this and see if any of these patterns hold. We may see a team lose their first game this weekend. Additionally, some winless teams may win their first game. Here are my records below.

Moneyline: 4-3 (13-8 Overall)
ATS: 3-4 (8-13 Overall)
O/U: 3-4 (7-14 Overall)

I did well on the moneyline relatively. Yet, the spread and the over/under were still hit or mess. Week 4 is here, and we will battle through the rough seas. Our power rankings tell you everything you need to know about the current status of every NFL team. Notably, some teams are in bad shape and really need a win to turn the ship around, and some teams have numerous injuries, like the 49ers. Check out our NFL odds page to see the lines from several reputable sources for the latest lines for all the games. Remember, injuries can always swing the lines, so always check the injury report.

EAGLES (-2.5) VS. BUCCANEERS (O/U 44.5)

The Eagles are 12th in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Buccaneers are tied for 15th in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Buccaneers are 15th in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Eagles are 17th in the NFL in points allowed per game.
The Eagles are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Buccaneers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Eagles are 1-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Bucs are 1-1 against the spread at home this season.
The Buccaneers lead the head-to-head series 12-11 (including 4-2 in the postseason)
The Buccaneers are 4-1 over the last five games against the Eagles.
The Buccaneers defeated the Eagles 32-9 last season, eliminating them from the postseason in the Wildcard Round.

The Eagles escaped the Bayou with a win, edging out the New Orleans Saints 15-12, despite passing on multiple field-goal attempts to go for it on fourth down and failing each time. Jalen Hurts was inconsistent but still went 29 for 38 with 311 yards passing for an interception. Things did not change for the Eagles until they started running the ball. Thus, Saquon Barkley got things going as he rushed 17 times for 147 yards for two touchdowns. Dallas Goedert was the top receiver, with 10 catches for 170 yards. The next game won’t get any easier as the Eagles head to Central Florida to battle the Bucs.

The Bucs stumbled over themselves last weekend, losing 26-7 to the Denver Broncos at Raymond James Stadium. Baker Mayfield crashed back to Earth, going 25 for 33 with 163 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. Bucky Irving stood out for the Bucs, running nine times for 70 yards. Chris Godwin also had six catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. But the Bucs only went 3 for 11 on third-down conversions. The two turnovers and seven sacks allowed did not help, either. Ultimately, this offense must quickly recover as they welcome a defense that just stymied a previously red-hot offense.

Both teams have major injuries. The Eagles may be without A.J. Brown and Devonte Smith, as both are nursing injuries, and neither partook in practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bucs are banged up on the offensive line and have a depleted secondary. But will Hurts have enough time and creativity to get the ball to Goedert or anyone who is still healthy? Assuming Brown and Smith both miss this game, I am giving the Bucs the edge to bounce back and steal a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Eagles 17

Picks: Buccaneers +2.5, U44.5

STEELERS (-1.5) VS. COLTS (O/U 39.5)

The Steelers are 24th in points per game this season.
The Colts are 13th in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Colts are tied for 17th in points per game this season.
The Steelers are the best team in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Steelers are 3-0 against the spread this season.
The Colts are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Steelers are 2-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Colts are 2-0 against the spread at home this season.
The Steelers lead the head-to-head series 27-7.
The Steelers are 4-1 over the last five games at Lucas Oil Field.
The Colts defeated the Steelers 30-13 last season.

The Steelers defeated the Chargers 20-10 to cement themselves at 3-0. It was another start for Justin Fields, who went 25 for 32 with 245 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception while rushing for a score. Fields also got some assistance from the defense, which was exceptional again, holding the Chargers to 10 points. Now, the Steelers will face another running quarterback who has struggled to start the season. Regardless, it will be a unique challenge.

The Colts defeated the Chicago Bears 21-16 to get their first win of the season. Jonathan Taylor led the way, running 23 times for 110 yards and two touchdowns. No, it was not a pretty day on offense, as quarterback Anthony Richardson played sloppy football again, turning the ball over twice. But the Colts overcame their issues, along with a defense that forced three turnovers and registered four sacks. Now, they will face the most brutal defense yet.

Do you trust Richardson? Until he shows his potential and starts making crisp passes, it will be tough to trust him against teams that can terrorize young quarterbacks. Taylor is the wildcard here. Ultimately, the Colts must rely on him to get past the Steelers. It’s also noteworthy to remind everyone that the Colts won in spite of Richardson, not because of him. He may surprise me. However, I can still see the Steelers holding the fort and avenging the loss from last season.

Prediction: Steelers 16, Colts 13

Picks: Steelers -1.5, U 39.5

VIKINGS (+2.5) VS. PACKERS (O/U 43.5)

The Vikings are third in points per game this season.
The Packers are 12th in points allowed per game this season.
The Packers are seventh in points per game this season.
The Vikings are second in points allowed per game.
The Vikings are 3-0 against the spread this season.
The Packers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Packers are 1-0 against the spread at home.
The Vikings are 1-0 against the spread on the road.
The Packers lead the all-time head-to-head series 66-58-3
The Packers are 6-4 in the last 10 games against the Vikings.
The Packers are 3-2 over the past five games against the Vikings at Lambeau Field.
The Vikings defeated the Packers 24-10 last season at Lambeau.

The Vikings steamrolled the Houston Texans 34-7, inflicting their will on a team many believe are Super Bowl contenders. Sam Darnold was efficient, going 17 for 28 with 181 yards and four touchdowns. Also, Aaron Jones rumbled for 102 yards. Justin Jefferson was exceptional as always, hauling in six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. But the defense is probably one of the most surprising strengths this season. They shut down the Texans’ offense, holding them to seven points. Minnesota also forced two turnovers. Now, they will get a different kind of test as they face their old divisional rivals at Lambeau.

The Packers were supposed to be dead in the water when Jordan Love went down. Instead, they have won two in a row after destroying the Tennessee Titans 30-14 in Nashville. This time, Malik Willis was the hero, going 13 for 19 with 202 yards passing and rushing six times for 73 yards and a score against the team that drafted him. The defense also forced three turnovers and leveled Will Levis with eight sacks. Now, they will face their most challenging test, a divisional rival with whom they have fought many times over the years.

Jordan Love may return. Regardless, the Packers have not exactly been perfect at home with him at quarterback, going 5-3 at Lambeau Field in 2023, including a loss to these same Vikings. It’s hard to ignore what the Vikings have done. No, they won’t stay hot forever and eventually will crash land down to Earth. But I think they steal one this week, especially since it won’t be a December game filled with snow.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Packers 17

Picks: Vikings +2.5, U 43.5

PATRIOTS (+10) VS. 49ERS (O/U 40.5)

The Patriots are second-to-last in points per game this season.
The 49ers are 21st in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The 49ers are tied for ninth in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Patriots are tied for 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Patriots are 1-1-1 against the spread this season.
The 49ers are 1-2 against the spread this season.
The Patriots are 1-1 against the spread on the road this season.
The 49ers are 1-0 against the spread at home this season.
The 49ers lead the head-to-head series 9-5.
The 49ers destroyed the Patriots 33-6 in their last meeting on October 25, 2020.
The 49ers are 4-2 against the Patriots at home but have not beaten them in the Bay Area since 1995.

The Patriots lost 24-3 to the New York Jets last weekend on Thursday Night Football. Unfortunately, it was just a poor day on offense for New England, as they managed just 139 total yards. Jacoby Brissett also went 12 for 18 with 98 yards passing while taking five sacks. The Patriots also barely had the football, only holding onto it for 19:56. Now, they will face their toughest test as they head into Santa Clara for a battle with the defending NFC champions.

The 49ers collapsed last week, blowing a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead, losing 27-24 to the Los Angeles Rams. San Francisco lost despite a ridiculous performance from Juwan Jennings, who had 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Brock Purdy carried the Niners on his back, going 22 for 30 with 292 yards passing and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, mistakes on defense and special teams, including a fake punt gain that helped swing the momentum, doomed the Niners. San Francisco hopes to get back on track, as its struggling defense gets a potential get-right game against New England.

The Patriots looked awful last week while the Niners choked a win away. Eventually, San Francisco will get things right. They don’t have to play perfect. However, Purdy will do enough to carry the 49ers to victory while the defense bounces back from last weekend’s awful showing. It won’t be a complete blowout, but it won’t be as close as last weekend.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Patriots 17

Picks: 49ers -10, O40.5

CHIEFS (-8.5) VS. CHARGERS (O/U 40)

The Chiefs are tied for seventh in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Chargers are third in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Chargers are tied for 17th in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Chiefs are 15th in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Chargers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Chiefs are 1-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Chargers are 1-0 against the spread at home this season.
The Chiefs lead the head-to-head series 69-58-1.
The Chiefs have won five in a row against the Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 against the Chargers.
The Chiefs are 10-0 over the last 10 road games against the Chargers, including a 7-0 record in Los Angeles.
The Chiefs escaped the Chargers 13-12 in their last encounter on January 1, 2024, at Sofi Stadium.
The Chiefs have won the last four games at Sofi Stadium by an average of 3.25 points.

The Chiefs escaped again, edging the Atlanta Falcons 22-17. It was their third straight, one-score victory to start the season. Patrick Mahomes went 26 for 39 with 217 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. Carson Steele ran 17 times for 72 yards. Also, Rashee Rice was exceptional, grabbing 12 passes for 110 yards and one touchdown. The defense was solid, forcing a turnover and generating two sacks. Now, the Chiefs likely face either a battered Justin Herbert or Taylor Heinicke this weekend.

The Chargers lost 20-10 to the Steelers. Herbert went 12 for 18 with 125 yards passing and one touchdown before exiting with an ankle injury. JK Dobbins struggled on the ground, running just 15 times for 44 yards for a 2.9 yards per carry rate. The Chargers were just 3 for 11 on third-down conversions. Moreover, the line allowed Herbert and Heinicke to take five sacks. To beat the Chiefs, the Chargers must open lanes and protect their quarterback, regardless of who is under center.

Herbert practiced in a limited capacity this week. He may play. Still, it’s tough to trust him in a situation like this against a team that has dominated the Chargers. I can see the Chargers shocking the Chiefs later in the season at Arrowhead. But for now, the Chiefs continue their dominance at Sofi, and it will be as close as usual.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

Picks: Chargers +8.5, O 40

BILLS (+2.5) VS. RAVENS (O/U 46.5)

The Bills are the best team in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Ravens are 24th in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Ravens are 11th in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Bills are seventh in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Bills are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Ravens are 1-2 against the spread this season.
The Bills are 1-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Ravens are 0-1 against the spread at home this season.
The Ravens lead the head-to-head series 6-5.
The Bills defeated the Ravens 23-20 in their last showdown on October 2, 2022, at M&T Bank Stadium.
Lamar Jackson leads the head-to-head series 2-1 with Josh Allen.

The Bills obliterated the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 on Monday Night Football to put themselves at 3-0. Josh Allen exploded on offense, going 23 for 30 with 263 yards passing and four touchdowns while also rushing six times for 44 yards on the ground. James Cook helped by running 11 times for 39 yards while catching four passes for 48 yards. Khalil Shakir was the top receiver, catching six passes for 72 yards. The defense was elite, holding the Jags to 2 for 13 on third-down conversions while forcing two turnovers and generating five sacks. Now, they will face one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Ravens won a thriller with the Dallas Cowboys, edging them out 28-25 at AT&T Stadium. Derrick Henry rumbled for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Likewise, Lamar Jackson went 12 for 15 with 182 yards passing with one touchdown while running 14 times for 87 yards and a touchdown. The defense set the offense up for success by causing a turnover and generating three sacks. Now, the defense must account for Allen and his ability to master the field and find the open receivers.

This will be the best game of the week. Just because the Ravens won last week doesn’t mean they’re still not desperate. There is still a lot on the line. Plus, they will be in front of a packed crowd at M&T Bank Stadium. The home-field advantage on primetime will give the Ravens a slight edge in this one.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 24

Picks: Ravens -2.5, O 46.5

SEAHAWKS (+4.5) VS. LIONS (O/U 46.5)

The Seahawks are tied for ninth in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Lions are ninth in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Lions are 16th in the NFL in points per game this season.
The Seahawks are fourth in the NFL in points allowed per game this season.
The Seahawks are 1-1-1 against the spread this season.
The Lions are 2-1 against the spread this season.
The Seahawks are 0-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.
The Lions are 1-1 against the spread at home this season.
The Seahawks lead the head-to-head series 13-5.
The Seahawks have won six in a row in this series.
The Seahawks defeated the Lions 37-31 in overtime last season on September 17, 2023.
The Seahawks have won the last two games against the Lions by an average of 4.5 points.

The Seahawks rolled to a 24-3 win over the Miami Dolphins last weekend to go to 3-0. Coach Mike Macdonald is still undefeated after Zach Charbonnet ran 18 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns to lead the offense. The Hawks persevered despite two turnovers from Geno Smith. Ultimately, the defense was exceptional, stifling backup quarterback Skylar Thompson, who had to leave the game with a rib injury. This defense held their first three opponents to 150 yards or less through the air. However, it will get more challenging as they face Jared Goff.

The Lions defeated the Arizona Cardinals 20-13 last weekend to go to 2-1. Goff was efficient, going 18 for 23 with 199 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. Ultimately, the running backs won the day again. First, David Montgomery rumbled for 23 rushes for 105 yards and one touchdown. Then, Jahmyr Gibbs ran 16 times for 83 yards and caught a touchdown on a 20-yard reception. Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Overall, this offense is starting to gel at the right time. Things will get more challenging as they face a really good defense.

Do the Seahawks have the Lions’ number? They seem to manage to beat them every season on the road in a one-score game. They are undefeated this season. However, no one has tested them yet. The Hawks have played the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and a broken Dolphins team. The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL, even without one of their star players. Sam LaPorta is dealing with a low-ankle injury and will be a game-time decision for this one. I think the Lions still have the overall talent and the coaching to get the job done at home against the Hawks on Monday Night Football.

Prediction: Lions 31, Seahawks 27

Picks: Seahawks +4.5, O 46.5