Money Where Your Mouth Is
With Tony Spahr
Ahhhh, the glorious time of year when we stare at ambiguous lines set by computers while we try to stack multiple to hit a huge parlay. Does it get any better? I don’t think it does. So, what’s the goal of this article? It’s simple. Win money! At least, we hope so. I will be betting on these props myself to “put my money where my mouth is” as some say. And I’m all for accountability so I will also cover the previous picks for my track record.
There were all sorts of directions I could take this article, but I chose to go with a somewhat simple structure: one quarterback prop, one running back prop, one wide receiver/tight end prop, an anytime touchdown scorer (ATTS), and a longest reception/longest rush. I plan to bet on each prop individually and then parlay my three favorites for some juice! The goal is to get the 3-leg player prop to +400 or more. So betting $5 would return $25.
Full transparency – my units will start smaller. We don’t unit shame in these parts! For each prop, I will put $5 on it and $5 on the 3-leg parlay; hopefully, we can take that $25 and nearly double it each week. Yes, this is optimistic thinking but if you don’t think you’re going to hit every bet, why are you even betting?! If we are doing well, we will increase our units.
Enough jibber-jabber. Let’s dive into the props we’re going to profit off of this week!
Tua Tagovailoa over 267.5 passing yards (-114 on FanDuel)
This one is not only a homer pick, but he reached this figure in 9 games last season, and nearly reached it in 3 more. I like to pay attention to near misses because if a couple of flags didn’t get called or passes didn’t get dropped, the QBs could have reached those numbers. Alas, he did not. So, seeing the 9 hits last season and the bump off the first game of the year, I’m comfortable taking this over. Plus, the Jaguars’ secondary isn’t the most intimidating. Bottom 10 in the league last season with few noteworthy additions outside of Savage, I think Tua will tear them up.
I included this pick in the 3-leg parlay, but I watered it down to 250+ passing yards (-192) for some wiggle room.
Tony Pollard ver 42.5 rushing yards (-114 on FanDuel)
There’s something about the Titans offense that I believe the general public is not seeing. Levis looked competent last year and they added pieces to improve the offense. Tony Pollard is one of those pieces. The talk among insiders this offseason was that Pollard was playing through injury a lot of 2023. The beat reporters all seem to think he has the pep in his step back and I’m eating that up. I see the 42.5 yards as a reachable figure by halftime to be honest. I can’t wait to be pleasantly surprised by Tony Pollard on Sunday.
This was also put into the 3-legger. Added it as 40+ rushing yards (-136) to buy 2 yards. Why not?
A.J. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards (-113 on FanDuel)
Technically, this is not a Sunday game, but going forward, these props will all be for Sunday games. I really don’t know if A.J. Brown’s line will be this low again all season. Let’s be real. He had how many games in a row of 125+ yards last season, 6? Let alone 71 yards, which he reached in 10 games, and almost another one (shy by 5 yards). The Packers’ secondary can lock down receivers. But I don’t think week one A.J. Brown is getting shut down. I’m borderline in love with this line, so I will be heartbroken if it comes up short.
This was the final pick of the parlay.
- Tua Tagovailoa 250+ passing yards (-192)
- A.J. Brown o 70.5 receiving yards (-113)
- Tony Pollard 40+ rushing yards (-136)
- Bringing our parlay to +397
- $5 bet returns $24.88
I also place $5 solo bets on each prop itself, so if we get them all right, we have a great day!
Longest Reception: Malik Nabers o 21.5 yards (-115)
I like this one a lot. I am writing this as I watch the Thursday night game and I also took Xavier Worthy’s over on longest reception. I’m toying with attacking rookie lines this year. Vegas can’t know EVERYTHING, right??? Either way, I saw enough training camp hype videos of Nabers getting a deep ball thrown his way which makes me like this. I’ll slap $5 on it. Can’t wait to see the highlight on redzone!
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Cordarrelle Patterson (+900)
I want to start this series off using some creativity with my ATTS pick (we’ll see how this approach goes, may adjust for next week, TBD) and I think Patterson has some juice to him this week. First of all, he followed his coach to Pittsburgh, so there was obviously a want for him. Second, the new kickoff setup has to produce return TDs eventually (right???), and I’m pretty sure CPat will be returning kicks for Pittsburgh. Plus, I will not be surprised if he is getting carries at the goal line. $5 to win $50! Let’s have some fun.
Don’t miss any of the action! Be sure to follow PicksCalculator on X as well as myself, FFTony, to watch our bets cash all season long together!
