MLB Player Props 8/14
Wednesday is here and hopefully, it treats us better than Monday. A 1-2 record on Monday hurt the soul after eyeing some great matchups. Luis Gil made the White Sox look like the 1927 Yankees, while Brandon Pfaadt allowed hit after hit. Now we look at the board for Wednesday and target some props to bounce back.
The slate is looking hefty today and that makes the eyes widen. Some props have caught my attention, but three stand out above the rest. Here are my top three props for August 14th.
Mitch Keller Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a tailspin right now. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games and are practically out of the NL Wild Card race. Today they have Mitch Keller on the mound against the San Diego Padres on the road, which is not a good thing for the starter.
Keller has a 3.56 ERA for the season but on the road, it grows to a 4.59 ERA with an OBA .265. Another issue is that he has to face a team that is on fire and ready to hit against anyone. The Padres are in the middle of the pack for hitting at home, but they mash right-handed pitchers. The Padres are in the top 8 in OPS, BABIP, and wRC+ against righties.
Furthermore, the Padres are on fire, as they are 9-1 in their last 10. Also, in the last 15 days, the Padres are top 3 in runs scored and AVG. They are on fire, as they play a team that is struggling and going further away by the day in the playoff race. Keller is a different pitcher on the road and is liable to give up several runs. I want to ride the hot hand and that is the Padres lineup. Keller over on earned runs allowed is the move for today.
DJ Herz Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
Another pitcher that struggles on the road going to face a team that can hit. DJ Herz is a solid pitcher at times, but there are occasions when he looks lost out there. In 3 road starts, it becomes magnified. In those starts, he has a 6.75 ERA and OBA of .302. He is just not a good enough pitcher on the road and we have to take advantage of that.
The Baltimore Orioles are trying to do the same. They come in during their heated division battle with the New York Yankees. The Orioles have a great matchup today. They are in the top 7 in AVG and OPS at home and against lefties. Furthermore, they are 6th in BABIP against lefties. All the signs point towards a huge hitting day for the Orioles.
In 2 of the 3 road starts for Herz, he has allowed this over easily. The line is way too low for someone who has a lot of struggles. I can’t see a way for Herz to shut down this Orioles offense in Baltimore. I look at this as the must-play of the day.
Tyler Anderson Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180)
Tyler Anderson has been excellent this season and even more after the all-star break. However, the line for his outs recorded is just a bit too high. When you look at his game logs over the past few months, Anderson has only eclipsed this over 3 different outings in 3 months.
The Toronto Blue Jays are not one of the better-hitting teams against lefties, but they can still work counts. Against lefties, the Blue Jays are in the top 5 in BB%. Anderson is only in the 34th percentile in terms of pitching BB%. That can be the Achilles heel for Anderson tonight, despite him potentially having a good outing on the mound.
Furthermore, the Angels bullpen is fairly rested with only two arms coming out to pitch yesterday. The bullpen is ready to go and Anderson might have to work some long at-bats with this patient Blue Jays lineup. This over has not hit at the rate you would think for it being placed at this. The Blue Jays have cost me a lot of money this year, but this prop is calling my name. That is why I have to take the under, despite believing that he pitches a solid game tonight.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
