Despite the NFL’s actual odds of winning a division being one in four, we all know some divisions are a lot harder to win than others. That being said, there are no guarantees. Every year, there’s a team that comes out of nowhere to outperform expectations and usually steals the top spot in their respective division. The following are two teams with solid odds that I feel have the potential to do just that.
Dolphins Recharged and Ready to Fire
The Dolphins are over the odds at +180 to win the AFC East, and we’re backing them to go one better than 2023.
They finished the year with an 11-6 record, which was marred by losing their last two games. Conversely, the Buffalo Bills won their last five to steal the division victory. However, there are lessons to be learned, and the Dolphins are back and they could be better than ever. Armed with a dynamic quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, one of the most potent offenses should have no problem putting points on the board.
They ranked second in total points (496) behind only the Dallas Cowboys, and it wasn’t just the arm of Tagovailoa that got the job done. Tagovailoa threw 30 passing touchdowns, and the Dolphins scored 27 rushing touchdowns. That’s an excellent mix of pass and run, especially compared to the Cowboys, who had 36 passing and only 14 rushing.
The balanced offense is spearheaded by speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has put up impressive numbers since moving from the Kansas City Chiefs, and running back Raheem Mostert. Despite being in his 10th season, Mostert rushed for 1,012 yards last season, which was tremendous production.
If he keeps that level, the Dolphins could run their way through the Bills, New England Patriots, and New York Jets.
We don’t see much competition coming from the struggling Patriots and Jets, and although the Bills are a quality team, the Dolphins should have a better win/loss record.
Their last division title came in 2008, but they are trending in the right direction. Having missed the playoffs from 2017-2021, they made post-season play in 2022 and 2023.
The only way is up for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, so take the +180 odds to win the AFC East.
Pick: Miami Dolphins (+180) to win AFC East
New-Look Jaguars Fit the Bill
The Jaguars are confident because they have made the right offseason choices. The AFC South contenders, who are a generous +250 to beat the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans, have every reason to be excited. Bettors could cash in with the Jaguars, who finished last season with a 9-8 record. That was only slightly worse than the Texans’ 10-7 winning record, and the gap has closed.
There is plenty of hype around the Texans, and in particular with QB C.J. Stroud. However, rule out the Jaguars at your peril.
Boosted by the re-signings of quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running Travis Etienne Jr, the foundation has been paid. They also made some excellent new acquisitions, including defensive tackle Arik Armstead, wide receiver Gabe Davis, and center Mitch Morse.
Signing a center might not seem like big news, but third-year center Luke Fortner ranked 31st among centers in pass block win rate, so Morse can only improve the team. Davis gives Lawrence another premium target, and now with Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr, Evan Engram and Davis to throw to, he has enough options.
The Jaguars also have depth at the QB position in case Lawrence gets injured. Mac Jones and C.J. Beathard are there to fill in if needed, and that’s more depth than most teams.
We don’t see much competition coming from the Colts and Titans. They are trending down, so the only focus should be on the Texans.
It will be a close race, but given the generous +250 odds at the sportsbook, it’s too tough to ignore. The clear value is with the Jaguars, who could be the surprise package of the upcoming NFL season.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+250) to win AFC South
Daryl has been a sport and horse racing writer for 16 years, working for sites all around the globe. He was a professional sports handicapper for several years, before helping his fellow bettors make better selections. When he’s not working, he’s either on the golf course – where he plays off a scratch handicap – or at his local horse racing track. Having been brought up in a horse racing family, it’s in his blood, but a love of food stopped his dream of becoming a jockey.
