MLB Player Props 7/24
Monday was a tough pill to swallow. For the first time in a long time, I went below .500 with a 1-2 record on the prop bets. Byron Buxton was awful and couldn’t even sniff the ball with each at-bat. Then there was Tyler Anderson falling one out short of reaching the over. It was a devastating end to the positive days of prop betting.
Luckily, a new day is here and it is time to begin a new streak. The slate is looking strong today and allows redemption. After going through the games for today, I was able to narrow it down to the top three. Here are those three prop bets we are going to cash out on.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
The defending champion, Texas Rangers, were waiting to see which road they were going down at the trade deadline. They were prepared to sell if put in that position, but there was room to show some fight and get back in the playoff race. With the trade deadline approaching, the Rangers have crawled their way back into the divisional race, as they are only 3 games back from first place in the AL West.
They can further help their chances by caring for the worst baseball team, the Chicago White Sox. One of the Rangers’ pitchers from last season’s playoff run, Nathan Eovaldi, gets to help the squad when he takes the bump tonight. Eovaldi is having a solid season, posting a 3.36 ERA and 94 strikeouts. Today is the perfect chance to back Eovaldi, but there are plenty of props to choose from.
I ended up going with Eovaldi’s strikeouts. He is facing a White Sox team that has been consistently in the top 10 in K% all season long. That coincides with Eovaldi being in the 60th percentile in K% and 64th percentile in Whiff%. Furthermore, he is a way better pitcher at home compared to on the road with a 2.69 ERA at home, whereas his road ERA is 4.58.
I see a big game for the World Series champion pitcher and get the over on strikeouts against this putrid White Sox lineup.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105)
Bobby Witt Jr. has become a man possessed after the All-Star break. Witt has 13 hits in 19 at-bats to start the second half of the season. He is on fire right now and I think I have to ride the hot hand and pray he continues this type of play. However, this might be the player Witt is, at least in his home ballpark.
Witt is batting .340 for the entire season, but at home, his AVG is even better. The young phenom is batting an astounding .408 at home. To put it in perspective, he has 206 at-bats at home compared to 200 on the road. This is a pretty robust sample size. Something about playing at home that gives Witt the ability to bat like Tony Gwynn with more power.
He gets to face Ryne Nelson, who struggles immensely against right-handed batters. Righties are batting .328 with an OPS of .866. Witt is batting .338 with 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers.
I agree that 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is tough to gamble on, but he is constantly hitting this over thus far and I can’t look away from his play and the matchup. I am willing to risk the extra number and take the over for the hottest hitter in baseball.
Luis Castillo Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)
Luis Castillo is the definitive ace for this Seattle Mariners team. However, he has been inconsistent and has fallen short of expectations thus far. Castillo is 8-10 with a 3.55 ERA. The Mariners expect more from someone of his caliber and status. Luckily, he has improved over the past month.
In three starts in July, Castillo is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and OBA of .176. It looks like he is finding his groove, as the Mariners are heading towards a three-headed race for the AL West. He looks to continue the hot run by facing the Los Angeles Angels at home.
The Angels are no real threat to the division, but the Mariners would love to beat a divisional rival. Castillo does have a very favorable matchup against them, as I love this under earned runs prop. The Angels rank in the bottom 7 of the league in SLG, OPS, and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Castillo is also very good at home with a 3.07 ERA and OBA of .229 in Seattle, while the Angels are in the bottom 10 of the league in road AVG and OPS. All signs point to a Castillo masterclass, which is why I am rolling with him today.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
