MLB Player Props 7/8
Another week of MLB player props is here after a beautiful 4th of July weekend. We started the weekend off with another 2-1 slate, which is becoming the new theme. Max Fried had 2 strikeouts after the 1st inning, but only managed another 2 for the rest of the game. There was a feeling that the three props would fully fade, but Kevin Gausman and Tyler Glasnow pulled through at the very end.
Today is going to be a little bit more difficult with only six games taking place after noon. However, the week needs to start with a bang and I will find the absolute best bets for the day. Here are the top three prop bets to start the week.
Chris Sale Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-170)
Chris Sale is having an excellent bounce-back year in his first season with the Atlanta Braves. After a few years of struggles and injuries, the left-handed pitcher is an All-Star once again. Despite the success he is currently achieving, I think today is a great spot to fade Sale.
After a rough start to the season, the reigning NL champions, Arizona Diamondbacks, are picking it up. They are 45-45 and firmly in the NL Wild Card race, which they are very familiar with. They are trying to regain form after some health issues to start the year and with the deadline also approaching, this is the perfect time to become scorching hot and go for it.
Sale has faced the D-Backs once this season already and couldn’t make it out of the 5th inning. The reason is that the D-Backs are fantastic versus lefties. They currently rank 2nd in all of MLB in AVG, OBS, and BABIP versus lefties. Furthermore, they are the 8th-best team in terms of K% versus lefties, which is important against a strikeout-heavy pitcher like Sale.
The Braves bullpen is fairly rested and does not need 7 innings from Sale. I can see a solid outing occur for Sale, but I do not see him pitching the 7th against a team that knows how to hold him at bay.
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150)
The Minnesota Twins are on fire and making a real case for taking the AL Central. Their lineup has been the best in baseball for the past month and it is not even close. One of the big reasons is Byron Buxton, who has been extremely hot as of late. In the last 30 days, Buxton has been batting .357 with an OPS of 1.099.
Buxton also has a great matchup today against the putrid Chicago White Sox. The listed starter for the White Sox is Chris Flexen, who struggles to get Buxton out. In 9 at-bats, Buxton has 7 hits, including 2 home runs. There is a chance Buxton can get this over in one at-bat or one inning by scoring a run.
Buxton and the Twins are on a tear offensively as they head to Chicago to play the worst team in baseball. You can easily choose another Twins batter, or even fading Flexen, but Buxton has the history on his side. He has hit this over in five straight games, and today should mark the sixth.
Mitchell Parker Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
The Washington Nationals are still rebuilding, but they are getting some solid play from a young pitching staff. One of those new young arms is Mitchell Parker. The young lefty is posting a solid 5-4 record with a 3.61 ERA.
Tonight Parker faces the St, Louis Cardinals, who are abysmal against left-handed pitchers. The Cardinals are the 2nd-worst team in AVG and OPS versus lefties. They have the 3rd-worst BABIP and only obtain a WRC+ of 80. The Cardinals are a hot team right now, but they can’t seem to crack the code against left-handed pitchers, which should give Parker the edge.
Furthermore, Parker is a very solid pitcher at home compared to on the road. He is posting a 4.02 ERA and .251 OBA, while at home he is rocking a 3.11 ERA and .207 OBA. He is also not afraid to go deep into games, as he has hit this over in 4 of his last 7 starts. The Nationals bullpen is a little bit worn out, which gives the bet an even higher chance of turning green.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
