MLB Player Props 6/26
Monday was a positive day for the prop betting with a 2-1 record. Aaron Nola just squeaked past his over, which derailed the perfect 3-0 record for that day. However, the other two props turned green, making it a positive evening. The slate starts a little early today, but there are some good games throughout the day. The summer is here and the only sport to bet on for the most part is going to be baseball. Let’s get the summer going with some stellar prop bets for tonight.
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150)
Coming into the season, no one truly expected the Cleveland Guardians to be this good and look like actual contenders. Jose Ramirez is the one leading the charge and is putting up an amazing 2024 campaign. He is currently in the top five in both home runs and RBIs this season while being on an absolute tear as of late.
In his last 10 games, Ramirez has hit this over in 8 of them. He has hit home runs in the first two games in this series against the Baltimore Orioles already. He is on fire during this series and would like for that to continue against Grayson Rodriguez, who in three plate appearances, has always reached base. That should show that despite the small sample size, Ramirez sees the ball well against Rodriguez.
Rodriguez has been an up-and-down pitcher all season long. You can never truly get a read on him. I think Ramirez jumps on him early and might even hit another home run today. I love this over and I don’t mind putting my trust in Ramirez.
Ryne Nelson Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-145)
The Minnesota Twins are heating up as of late. They are 6-4 in their last 10 and are now 43-36 for the season. In the last month, the Twins are top five in AVG, SLG, and OPS. Furthermore, the Twins are also top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA against right-handed pitchers. This all leads to the Twins facing a juicy matchup tonight versus Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Ryne Nelson is struggling immensely this season with a 5.18 ERA. However, he has had some quality starts as of late. However, he is just too inconsistent and can easily have a blow-up start. In his six home starts, Nelson’s numbers seem to get worse. He has a 5.74 ERA, while opponents are batting .326 while pitching in his home ballpark.
When you take a deep look at his peripheral numbers as well, it does not help his case. He is in the 20th percentile or worse in Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, Whiff%, K%, and xERA. Nelson is just not a good pitcher at the moment and a hot team like the Twins can take advantage of that. I think you take the over earned runs here and expect a bad outing from Nelson.
Gavin Stone Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
We all know the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to win 100+ games and have tons of talent at every position. However, there are still times when they have talent that might fly under the radar. Gavin Stone fits that description. The young pitcher is 8-2 with 3.04 ERA this season so far. He is just executing for a pitching rotation that has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play from supposed sure things.
There are some lines I do like for him, such as the under for his earned runs allowed or the the under for hits allowed. However, I decided to go with his over on strikeouts for tonight. The reason behind that choice is that the Dodgers used their bullpen a ton last night and might need Stone to get through at least six innings. That threshold of six innings might hinder his hits and earned runs prop. However, the more innings the better for his strikeout prop.
Stone is not a strikeout pitcher per se, but is capable of hitting this over. In his last 10 starts, he has hit the over in 6 of them. In June alone, he has surpassed the over in 3 of the 4 starts. He is also facing a lowly White Sox team that is bottom 10 in K%. The matchup is there for Stone and I think with sheer volume and stuff, he can hit this over with relative ease.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
