Thursday MLB Picks
There are nine games on Thursday’s MLB schedule, kicked off by the Twins and Diamondbacks at 3:40 PM ET. The Cubs and Giants also close out their series with a 3:45 PM first pitch. In Philadelphia, the Marlins and Phillies face off in an NL East matchup, and the Reds and Cardinals get their series started at 7:45 PM ET. The final game for Thursday is the Tigers visiting the Angels at 9:38 PM ET.
Moneyline Plays
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Marlins (+251) – Phillies (-312) | O/U 7.5
The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the moneyline for Thursday’s matchup vs. the Marlins, with their odds sitting at -312. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs. First pitch is set for 6:20 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park.
The Marlins are 28-52, putting them 5th in the NL East, 25.0 games behind the Phillies. Miami is 2 games under .500 on the road, compared to 12-25 at home. As for the Phillies, they are 53-27 overall and have an eight-game lead over the Braves in the NL East.
Offensively, the Marlins are 29th in scoring, averaging just 3.5 runs per game. Miami is also last in home runs and have the worst Isolated Power (ISO) in the league. The Phillies are 2nd in scoring and are 5th in homers. Miami will be facing Zack Wheeler, who is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA. He is also holding opponents to a batting average of .181.
Trevor Rogers will be getting the start for the Marlins and is 1-8 with a 4.90 ERA. He is coming off a no-decision vs. the Mariners, where he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Rogers will be facing a Phillies lineup that is led by Bryce Harper, who is hitting .500 over his last seven games with five homers and 11 RBIs. For the year, he is hitting .305 with 20 homers.
MLB Best Bet: Miami Marlins ML +251
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tigers (-167) – Angels (+140) | O/U 8.0
Both the Tigers and Angels are averaging 4.1 runs per game this season, which is 21st in the league. Detroit is favored tonight, with their moneyline odds sitting at -167, while the Angels are at +140. The over/under line for the game is at 8 runs. The Tigers are 37-43 overall and trail the Guardians by 15 games in the AL Central. The Angels are 33-46 and are 11 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. First pitch is set for 9:38 PM ET.
Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Tigers, and he is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA. Flaherty has a WHIP of 0.97 and has gone 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA on the road. He has nine quality starts this year and is coming off a start in which he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up one earned run. The Angels are starting Davis Daniel, who went 1-1 last year with a 2.19 ERA. So far, he has zero quality starts and a 5.04 FIP.
Offensively, the Tigers are 22nd in scoring and are led by Riley Greene, who is hitting .259 with 15 homers and 41 RBIs. Over his last eight games, he is 8/26 with four RBIs. Colt Keith is 9/26 in his last seven games. For the Angels, Taylor Ward has 14 homers and 41 RBIs. He is also batting .258 with two homers in his last nine games. Luis Rengifo has a team-high batting average of .308.
MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels ML +140
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Reds (+112) – Cardinals (-133) | O/U 8.5
Elly De La Cruz is hitting .249 this season with 14 homers and 35 RBIs for the Reds. He is 13/37 over his last nine games. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also among the team’s home run leaders. Cincinnati is 17-20 on the road this season and 20-23 at home. The Reds are 37-43 overall and trail the Brewers by 10.5 games in the NL Central.
Andrew Abbott is 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA this season and has five quality starts. He is facing a Cardinals lineup that is 25th in scoring at 4 runs per game. St. Louis is 41-38 overall and 6 games back of the Brewers. They are 22-16 at home and 19-22 on the road. The Cardinals are 14-11-1 in series this season.
Miles Mikolas is 6-6 with a 4.68 ERA this season and is coming off a start in which he gave up four earned runs in six innings. He has won three straight starts. So far, he has nine quality starts. Mikolas is facing a Reds lineup that is 17th in scoring and is hitting .228 overall.
First pitch for Thursday’s game is set for 7:45 PM ET. The Reds are +112 on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are -133. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs. BSMW is carrying the game on TV.
MLB Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML +112
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Twins (+104) – Diamondbacks (-123) | O/U 9.0
Thursday’s interleague matchup between the Twins and Diamondbacks is set to get started at 3:40 PM ET from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Diamondbacks are favored on the moneyline, with their odds sitting at -123 compared to the Twins at +104. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.
David Festa is starting for the Twins, and he will be facing off against Jordan Montgomery. Minnesota is 44-36 this season, and they are 2nd in the AL Central, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West with a record of 39-41.
Minnesota is 44-36 overall and trails the Guardians by eight games in the AL Central. The Twins are 15-11 against other teams in the division. Minnesota will be looking to pick up a win today, as they are 21-20 on the road compared to 23-16 at home.
So far, the Twins have been good as the favorite, going 35-20, but just 9-16 as the underdog. As for their overall series record, the Twins are 14-9-2 this year. They are also 6-4 across their last ten games overall.
Arizona will be hosting the Twins today, and they are 20-16 as the favorite this year and 19-25 as the underdog. The Diamondbacks’ overall series record is 10-12-3, and they are 5-5 across their last 10 games, heading into today’s matchup vs. the Twins.
Willi Castro has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Twins, going 15/37 in his last nine games, with two homers and eight RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .274, and he is 3rd on the team with an OBP of .359. Castro is also on a nine-game hitting streak. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has also been swinging a good bat for the Twins, as his 13 homers is the best mark on the team and 12th in the league. Jeffers has also driven in 41 runs, which is the top mark for the Twins.
As a team, the Twins are 8th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in home runs and have the 4th best slugging percentage in the league. Minnesota comes into the game with a team OPS of .740, which is the 6th best mark in the league.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been the Diamondbacks’ top power threats this season, with Walker leading the team with 17 homers and Marte right behind him at 16. Walker’s 50 RBIs are the best mark on the team, with Marte’s 46 RBIs being the 2nd best on the team. Marte has gone deep twice in his last seven games but is hitting just .231 over that stretch.
For today’s game against the Diamondbacks, the Twins will rely on David Festa to set the tone. It’s his debut for the season and he’s looking to put together a strong start in his debut.
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Twins at home. Montgomery has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 6-4 with an ERA of 5.71. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 6.29 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Montgomery picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Montgomery’s ERA at home is 9.12 compared to 5.79 on the road.
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML +104
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Cubs (-110) – Giants (-108) | O/U 7.5
The Cubs are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and are 5th in the NL Central with an overall record of 37-44. They are 11 games behind the Brewers. Chicago is slightly favored today at -110, and the over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs. On the other side, the Giants are 39-42 and 4th in the NL West, 11.5 games behind the Dodgers. So far, the Giants are 23-17 at home and have won three straight games.
Shota Imanaga is 7-2 this season and has an ERA of 2.96, along with a WHIP of 1.10. He is facing a Giants lineup that is led by Heliot Ramos, who has 10 homers and is hitting .294. Ramos is also 2nd on the team with 35 RBIs. In his last outing, Imanaga gave up 10 hits, 10 earned runs, and three homers in three innings of work.
On the other side, Jordan Hicks is 4-4 with a 3.24 ERA, and he is coming off a loss in which he gave up five earned runs in four innings. Overall, he has eight homers at home and 3.46 walks per nine innings. Offensively, the Cubs are 20th in scoring, and Christopher Morel leads the team with 15 homers and 45 RBIs. Cody Bellinger is also swinging a hot bat, going 9/25 in his last seven games.
MLB Best Bet: San Francisco Giants ML -108
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Guardians (-115) – Royals (-104) | O/U 8.5
Thursday’s MLB matchup between the Guardians and Royals is set to get underway at 8:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium. The moneyline odds have Cleveland at -115 compared to the Royals at -104, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians, and he is 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA this season. As for the Royals, they are going with Michael Wacha, who is 4-6 with a 4.07 ERA.
Cleveland’s overall record is 51-27, putting them in 1st place in the AL Central. They are 8 games ahead of the Twins. The Guardians have won seven of their last 10 games and are 26-9 at home. Kansas City is 44-38 overall and trail the Guardians by nine games in the division. The Royals are 12-12 at home and have dropped four straight games as the underdog.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been a strong 1-2 punch for the Guardians this season, and Ramirez is on a nine-game hitting streak. Overall, Cleveland is 3rd in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. The Royals are 13th at 4.5 runs per contest. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are both on three-game hitting streaks for the Royals, and they are both tied for the team lead with 12 homers.
MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML -115
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Yankees (-138) – Blue Jays (+118) | O/U 8.0
Carlos Rodón is starting for the Yankees, and he is 9-4 with a 3.86 ERA this season. He will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up seven earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. Overall, Rodón has a WHIP of 1.21 and has 10 quality starts this year. He is facing a Blue Jays lineup that is led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has three homers in his last five games and is hitting .288 for the year.
New York is favored on the moneyline (-138) and is 52-30 overall, while the Blue Jays are 36-43 and are 14.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The over/under line for Thursday’s game is set at 8 runs. First pitch is set for 7:07 PM ET from the Rogers Centre.
Currently, the Yankees are 1 game ahead of the Orioles in the AL East and are 10-12 in divisional games. The Blue Jays are 10-14 against other AL East teams. New York is 17-12 as the road favorite and 40-24 overall as the favorite. Toronto is just 7-23 as the underdog and 0-6 as the home underdog this year.
Offensively, the Yankees are 2nd in homers and 5th in runs scored. Aaron Judge leads the majors with 30 homers and has homered three times in his last five games. The Blue Jays are 26th in scoring at 3.9 runs per game and are hitting .233 as a team, which is 21st. The Blue Jays are also one of the league’s top strikeout teams, averaging just seven per game.
MLB Best Bet: New York Yankees ML -138
Over Under Plays
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Rangers (+180) – Orioles (-215) | O/U 8.0
Thursday’s matchup between the Rangers and Orioles has a first pitch set for 6:35 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. The Orioles are 50-30 and trail the Yankees by one game for the AL East lead. As for the Rangers, they are 3rd in the AL West at 37-43 and trail the Mariners by 7.5 games. Baltimore is the heavy moneyline favorite for today’s game, with odds of -215 compared to the Rangers at +180.
Corbin Burnes is starting for the Orioles and has an 8-3 record and a 2.35 ERA. He is coming off a rough outing against the Astros, where he gave up four earned runs in seven innings. Burnes has 12 quality starts this season. As for the Rangers, Jon Gray is 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA and a WHIP of 1.23. Gray is coming off a strong outing and has a slider that has helped him rack up 8.58 strikeouts per nine innings.
Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager are tied for the team lead with 14 homers for the Rangers, with Garcia hitting .218 and Seager at .255. Garcia is also 2nd on the team with 42 RBIs. As for the Orioles, they lead the league in homers and are the top-scoring team in the league. Gunnar Henderson has four homers over his last eight games and is hitting .419 in that stretch. Overall, he is 2nd in the league with 26 homers.
MLB Best Bet: Over 8 Runs -108
