AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Bills -3 | Total Points: 49.5
Coming into this week 18 AFC matchup, the Bills are in the middle of a four-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 10-6. After a 27-21 victory over the Patriots, the Bills are looking for another win in week 18. Although they won the game, the Bills failed to cover the spread against the Patriots despite being favored by 14.5. The over hit in their most recent game, as the Patriots and Bills combined for 48 points. The over/under line was 40.5.
Heading into the game, the Dolphins are the 2nd ranked team in the AFC with a record of 11-5. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 7-4. After a 56-19 loss to the Ravens, the Dolphins are looking to get back on track this week. With their 37-point loss, the Dolphins were also handed a defeat on their ATS record. Going into the game, they were 3-point underdogs. The team, in conjunction with Baltimore, combined for 75 points, surpassing the over/under line of 47.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins History
When the Bills and Dolphins faced off for the first time, it was the Bills who clinched a 48-20 win. On the point spread, the Bills went in as the favorite (-3), and they secured a 28-point win, picking up an ATS win. The over/under line going into the game was 52.5 points, which the teams surpassed.
The Bills and Dolphins did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Bills have a record of 3-0. However, against the spread, the Dolphins went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 3-0 on an average of 64 points per game.
Notable Injuries
Buffalo Bills
- Leonard Floyd – Rib (Probable)
- Micah Hyde – Neck (Probable)
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Damar Hamlin – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
- Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
- Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Jordan Phillips – Wrist (Out)
Miami Dolphins
- Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
- Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
- Xavien Howard – Foot (Questionable)
- Terron Armstead – Back/ankle/knee (Questionable)
- Tyreek Hill – Ankle/personal (Questionable)
- Duke Riley – Ankle (Questionable)
- Zach Sieler – Illness (Probable)
- David Long Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
- Lester Cotton – Hip (Questionable)
- Austin Jackson – Oblique (Questionable)
- Liam Eichenberg – Calf/ankle (Questionable)
- Jevon Holland – Knees (Questionable)
- De’Von Achane – Toe/ribs (Questionable)
- Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
- Alexander Johnson – Undisclosed (Out)
- Salvon Ahmed – Foot (Out)
- Jaylen Waddle – Ankle (Questionable)
- Jaelan Phillips – Achilles (Out)
- Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Bradley Chubb – Knee (Out)
- Connor Williams – Knee (Out)
- Jerome Baker – Knee (Questionable)
- Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
- Raheem Mostert – Knee/ankle (Questionable)
- Mike White – Right Shoulder (Probable)
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo offense will be looking to turn things around, as they are averaging just 26.9 points per game on average. In the league rankings, this has them 5th. Looking at their performance in the passing game so far, Buffalo is 10th in passing yards per game, where they have an average of 238.1. Additionally, their passing yards per attempt of 7, places them 5th in the league. A key to the team’s offensive success is their effectiveness on the ground. On the season, the Buffalo offense is 9th in rush yards per attempt. This figure has led to an average of 130.2 yards per game.
Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins
Coming into week 18, the Dolphins offense is 1st in the league at 30.1 points per contest. Throughout the season, the Miami offense has done an excellent job protecting the quarterback, as they have given up 60 hits on the QB. This excellent protection has led to the team being ranked 1st in pass yards per contest. The Dolphins come in with an average of 5 yards per rushing attempt while running the ball an average of 27.2 times per game. In terms of total rushing yardage, they currently rank 5th in the league.
Betting Trends
- In their last five games away from home, the Bills have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 24 points per game in this stretch.
- In their last ten games at home, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 4-6 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 26 points per game in this stretch.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
- Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Bills have a strong record of 4-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.
Prediction
- Miami Dolphins 27 – Buffalo Bills 26
