AFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Bills -13 | Total Points: 40
Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Bills, the Patriots have a below .500 record at 4-11. The Patriots are coming off a win after defeating the Broncos with a final score of 26-23. Going into the game, the Patriots were actually 7-point underdogs. This resulted in an ATS win for the Patriots. The over/under line for their game was set at 36.5 points, and the teams exceeded it with a combined total of 49 points.
As the Bills prepare for this AFC matchup, the team has an overall record of 9-6. This includes riding a current three-game winning streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 5-5. Buffalo is looking to string together another win after taking down the Chargers 24-22 in their last game. Even with the straight-up win, the Bills did not cover vs. the spread against Los Angeles. On the spread, the Bills were favored by 12.5. Heading into the game, the over/under line was 44.5 points. As they combined for 46 points, the over hit.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills History
The Bills are hoping to build off last year’s success over the Patriots as they went 2-0 in their head-to-head meetings. The two teams averaged a combined 46 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-1. Against the spread, the Bills went 2-0. Offensively, the Bills averaged 341 yards per game in the head-to-head matchups compared to the Patriots at 291.5 yards.
In the last five head-to-head matchups, the Bills have had the upper hand, going 4-1. The over/under record in the five most recent head-to-head games between the Patriots and Bills is 4-1, with an average of 52 points per game. The last three times that the Patriots have been on the road vs. the Bills, the over/under record is 3-2.
Notable Injuries
New England Patriots
- Ezekiel Elliott – Illness (Questionable)
- Rhamondre Stevenson – Ankle (Out)
- Jonathan Jones – Knee (Questionable)
- Shaun Wade – Hip (Questionable)
- Anfernee Jennings – Illness (Questionable)
- Myles Bryant – Chest (Questionable)
- Christian Barmore – Knee (Questionable)
- Trent Brown – Illness (Questionable)
- Jalen Mills – Concussion (Questionable)
- Ja’Whaun Bentley – Knee (Questionable)
- Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
- Cole Strange – Knee (Out)
- Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
- Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
- Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
- Conor McDermott – Concussion (Out)
- Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
- Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – Ankle (Questionable)
- Jabrill Peppers – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)
- Matthew Slater – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
- Hunter Henry – Knee (Questionable)
- J.C. Jackson – Personal (Out)
- Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)
- Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
- Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
Buffalo Bills
- Shaq Lawson – Illness (Questionable)
- Leonard Floyd – Wrist/rib (Probable)
- Damar Hamlin – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Terrel Bernard – Ankle (Questionable)
- Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
- Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
- A.J. Epenesa – Ribs (Questionable)
- Ty Johnson – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
- Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
- Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
- Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
- Jordan Phillips – Wrist (Out)
- Micah Hyde – Neck (Questionable)
- DaQuan Jones – Pectoral (Questionable)
Keys To Victory: New England Patriots
Offensively, the Patriots have an average of 14.1 points per game, which positions them 29th in the NFL. In the passing attack, the Patriots have put together a strong completion percentage of 64.5%. Yet, this has not translated into yards, as they have a per-game average of just 189.8. Per attempt, the Patriots are averaging 3.8 yards while carrying the ball an average of 24.7 times per contest. In terms of yardage, they are 24th in the league.
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the team’s 6th-ranked scoring offense will need to be on top of their game to cover the spread as -13 point betting favorites. This season, he has completed 66.5% of his passes, leading an average of 251 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 6th among QB’s in passing yards and 7th in attempts. Stefon Diggs has been targeted 145 times this season, and has caught 96 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 1070 receiving yards. The Bills are currently averaging 4.3 yards per rushing attempt while carrying the ball an average of 29.3 times per game. In terms of rushing yardage, they hold the 7th position in the league.
Betting Trends
- New England has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 18 points per game while allowing 17. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Bills offense has averaged 26 points per game while allowing an average of 20. Buffalo posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 4-6 ATS.
- As the betting underdog, the Patriots have an ATS mark of just 2-2-1 in their last five games. New England posted a straight-up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
- Buffalo has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
Prediction
- Buffalo Bills 28 – New England Patriots 20
