AFC Conference Matchup
Point Spread: Broncos -7 | Total Points: 34.5
Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Broncos, the Patriots have a below .500 record at 3-11. In their last game, the Patriots welcomed the Chiefs. The game finished in a 27-17 loss for the Patriots. With a 10-point loss, the Patriots added an ATS push. They were 10-point underdogs prior to the game. With an over/under line of 39.5 points, the game saw a total of 44 points, going over the set line.
With a win this week, the Broncos would move to above .500 as they are currently 7-7. The Broncos took on the Lions in week 15, but they fell short, losing by a score of 42-17. In addition to their 25-point loss, the Broncos also suffered a setback in their ATS record. They were 5.5-point underdogs at the start of the game. With a set over/under line of 49 points, the game concluded with a combined total of 59 points, surpassing the betting line.
New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos History
The Patriots and Broncos did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Patriots have a record of 2-1. The Patriots also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 35 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
- In their last three games away from home, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 15 points per game in this stretch.
- In their last five games at home, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 18 points per game in these contests.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Patriots have gone 1-1-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
- As the betting favorite, the Broncos have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.
Notable Injuries
New England Patriots
- Matthew Slater – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Jonathan Jones – Knee (Questionable)
- Ja’Whaun Bentley – Knee (Questionable)
- Jahlani Tavai – Ankle (Questionable)
- Jabrill Peppers – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Christian Barmore – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Cody Davis – Illness (Questionable)
- Anfernee Jennings – Illness (Questionable)
- Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
- Cole Strange – Knee (Out)
- Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
- Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
- J.C. Jackson – Personal (Out)
- Conor McDermott – Concussion (Questionable)
- Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
- Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
- Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)
- Trent Brown – Ankle/hand/illness (Questionable)
- Hunter Henry – Knee (Questionable)
- Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – Ankle (Questionable)
- Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
- Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)
- Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
- Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
- Rhamondre Stevenson – Ankle (Questionable)
Denver Broncos
- Alex Palczewski – Hand (Questionable)
- Eyioma Uwazurike – Suspension (Out)
- Greg Dulcich – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Jalen Virgil – Meniscus (Out)
- Jonathon Cooper – Ankle (Probable)
- Jonas Griffith – Knee (Out)
- Nik Bonitto – Knee (Questionable)
- Caden Sterns – Knee (Out)
- K’Waun Williams – Ankle (Out)
- Tim Patrick – Achilles (Out)
Keys To Victory: New England Patriots
When compared to other teams, the New England offense is struggling to score points, with an average of just 13.3 points per game. As a team, New England ranks 26th in the NFL for passing yards per game, with an average of 186.9. Their passing yards per attempt of 5.6 places them at 15th in the league. A major problem for this year’s New England offense is their lack of production in the run game. Per attempt, the team is averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt. Overall, they are the 25th-ranked team in yards per game.
Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos
At home, the Broncos are averaging 23.3 points per contest compared to their overall numbers of 21.7 points per game. In the league, Denver is 15th in overall scoring. Russell Wilson has thrown 24 touchdowns so far this season, placing him 5th among quarterbacks. His total passing yards of 2832 also ranks him 18th in his position. Heading into this week’s matchup, the Denver offense is averaging 112.7 yards per game on the ground, which places them above the league average. However, the team’s yards per attempt figure is just 10th in the NFL.
Betting Trends
- In their last three games away from home, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 15 points per game in this stretch.
- Through their last ten home games, Denver has an ATS record of just 4-5-1. However, their overall record was 3-7 while averaging 18 points per game.
- Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-7-1.
- In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Broncos have a strong straight-up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
Prediction
- New England Patriots 22 – Denver Broncos 21
