AFC Conference Matchup
Point Spread: Texans -3 | Total Points: 47.5
Coming into this week 13 AFC matchup, the Broncos are in the middle of a five-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 6-5. The Broncos hosted the Browns in 12. This game ended in a 29-12 win for Denver. The Broncos covered the spread, as they were favored by 2 against the Browns. The over/under line for their game was set at 37.5 points, and the teams exceeded it with a combined total of 41 points.
Heading into the game, the Texans are the 8th-ranked team in the AFC with a record of 6-5. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 3-3. The Texans hosted the Jaguars in their last game but suffered a 24-21 loss. In addition to their 3-point loss, the Texans also lost vs. the spread. They were 1-point underdogs heading into the game. The under hit in the Texans’ most recent game, as the teams combined for 45 points. The line going into the game was 48.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans History
The Broncos and Texans faced off one time last season, with the Broncos picking up a 16-9 win. In their only head-to-head matchup, the teams scored 25 points, which fell below the over/under line of 45.5. The Texans covered the spread in last year’s matchup. Offensively, the Broncos finished with 350 total yards with 201 coming in the passing game and 149 on the ground. The Texans finished with 234 yards of offense in the loss.
Over their previous five games against the Texans, the Broncos have put together a record of 4-1. Over the last three head-to-head matchups between the Broncos and Texans, the Broncos have the edge vs. the spread at 2-1, but the Broncos actually have a positive scoring differential of 6 points per game.
Notable Injuries
Denver Broncos
- Alex Palczewski – Hand (Out)
- Jalen Virgil – Meniscus (Out)
- Brandon Johnson – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Wil Lutz – Right Hip (Questionable)
- Jerry Jeudy – Groin (Questionable)
- Marvin Mims Jr. – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Damarri Mathis – Back (Questionable)
- Jonas Griffith – Knee (Out)
- Greg Dulcich – Hamstring (Out)
- Eyioma Uwazurike – Suspension (Out)
- Caden Sterns – Knee (Out)
- Tim Patrick – Achilles (Out)
- K’Waun Williams – Ankle (Out)
- Kareem Jackson – Suspension (Out)
Houston Texans
- Jimmie Ward – Hamstring (Probable)
- Hassan Ridgeway – Achilles (Out)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn – Quad (Out)
- Eric Murray – Knee (Out)
- Noah Brown – Knee (Questionable)
- M.J. Stewart – Shoulder (Out)
- Scott Quessenberry – Knee (Out)
- Tytus Howard – Knee (Out)
- Kenyon Green – Shoulder (Out)
- Teagan Quitoriano – Groin (Out)
- Jake Hansen – Hand/hamstring (Probable)
- Kendrick Green – Knee (Out)
- Grayland Arnold – Calf (Out)
- Sheldon Rankins – Elbow (Questionable)
- Maliek Collins – Personal (Questionable)
- George Fant – Hip (Probable)
- Tank Dell – Calf (Questionable)
- Laremy Tunsil – Knee (Probable)
- Dalton Schultz – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Dylan Horton – Personal (Out)
- Jarrett Patterson – Ankle (Out)
- Troy Hairston – Back (Out)
- DJ Scaife – Leg (Out)
- Jesse Matthews – Knee (Out)
- Kilian Zierer – Ankle (Out)
Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos
The Broncos come in with an average of 22.4 points per game, which is 11th in the NFL. Not only is the team struggling to pick up yards through the air, but they have also struggled to use the pass to move the chains. For the year, Denver is just 26th in the NFL in 3rd downs converted in the passing game. When it comes to rushing, the Broncos are averaging 4.5 yards per attempt while running the ball an average of 26 times per game. At 115.5 rushing yards per contest, they are 12th in the league.
Keys To Victory: Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense enter this week 13 matchup, averaging 23.5 points per contest, placing them 8th in the NFL. For the season, Stroud is averaging 296 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 2nd among quarterbacks. Stroud comes in with a passer rating of 100.8 and is averaging 13.1 yards per completion. Against the Broncos, the team will look to get receiver Nico Collins involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 7.3 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 800. On the ground, the Texans have carried the ball an average of 26.5 times per game and currently rank 22nd in rushing yards. Their average rushing yards per attempt is 3.7.
Betting Trends
- In their last ten games away from home, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 4-5-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 17 points per game in this stretch.
- When looking at their past three home matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
- In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Broncos have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
- Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Houston has an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 5-5 straight up.
Prediction
- Houston Texans 22 – Denver Broncos 19
