AFC South Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Jaguars -1.5 | Total Points: 47.5
Coming into to this week’s AFC matchup vs the Texans, the Jaguars have an above .500 record at 7-3. After a 34-14 victory over the Titans, the Jaguars are looking for another win in week 12. The Jaguars were able to cover the spread vs. Tennessee, as they went into the game favored by 6.5. With the over/under line set at 40 points, the over hit with a combined 48 points.
Overall, the Texans have an above .500 record at 6-4. Helping their cause is the fact that they are in the midst of a three game winning streak. In AFC action, the team is 3-2. This week, the Texans will be looking to string together another win after taking down the Cardinals by a score of 21-16. Although they won the game, the Texans failed to cover the spread against the Cardinals despite being favored by 5.5. Going into the game vs. Arizona, the over/under line was 48. With a combined total of 37 points, the under hit in this game.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans History
Last year, the Texans and Jaguars split their head-to-head matchups, with each team going 1-1. The Jaguars and Texans split their games vs. the spread last season. Together, they combined to average 26.5 points per contest and finished with an over/under mark of 0-2. In these head-to-head matchups, the Jaguars’ offense averaged 379.5 yards per game compared to the Texans at 262.5.
Last season, the Jaguars and Texans did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Texans have the leg up at 2-1. The Texans also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 35 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Notable Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jamal Agnew – Shoulder/ribs (Out)
- Chris Claybrooks – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
- Jaylon Moore – Knee (Out)
- Tyson Campbell – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Ventrell Miller – Achilles (Out)
- Leonard Taylor – Undisclosed (Out)
- Cooper Hodges – Knee (Out)
- Christian Braswell – Hamstring (Out)
- Roy Robertson-Harris – Ankle (Questionable)
- Zay Jones – Knee (Questionable)
- Jeremiah Ledbetter – Personal (Probable)
Houston Texans
- Jimmie Ward – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Denzel Perryman – Suspension (Out)
- Hassan Ridgeway – Achilles (Out)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn – Quad (Out)
- Eric Murray – Knee (Out)
- Noah Brown – Knee (Questionable)
- Scott Quessenberry – Knee (Out)
- M.J. Stewart – Shoulder (Out)
- Grayland Arnold – Calf (Out)
- Charlie Heck – Foot (Questionable)
- Kenyon Green – Shoulder (Out)
- Teagan Quitoriano – Groin (Out)
- Jake Hansen – Hand/hamstring (Questionable)
- Kendrick Green – Knee (Out)
- Juice Scruggs – Leg (Questionable)
- Jarrett Patterson – Ankle (Out)
- Troy Hairston – Back (Out)
- DJ Scaife – Leg (Out)
- Jesse Matthews – Knee (Out)
- Kilian Zierer – Ankle (Out)
- Will Anderson Jr. – Knee (Probable)
- Dylan Horton – Personal (Out)
- Case Keenum – Calf (Questionable)
- Laremy Tunsil – Knee (Probable)
Keys To Victory: Jacksonville Jaguars
Against Houston, the Jaguars will look to continue their strong offensive play, as they are sitting 10th in the league at 23 points per game. As a team, Jacksonville ranks 15th in the NFL for passing yards per game, with an average of 225.4. Their passing yards per attempt of 6.6 places them at 11 in the league. This season, the Jacksonville offense has been able to put up points at an above-average rate, even though have struggled to move the ball on the ground. So far, they are averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt, leading to a per-game average of 108.7.
Keys To Victory: Houston Texans
In what is projected to be a tightly contested game, C.J. Stroud will be looking to put together a strong performance for a Houston offense ranked 9th in points per game. This season, he has completed 62.8% of his passes, leading an average of 296 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 3rd among QB’s in passing yards and 11th in attempts. Against the Jaguars, the team will look to get receiver Nico Collins involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 7.1 targets per game, leading to an overall total of 696 receiving yards. The Texans hold the 23rd position in the NFL with 99.5 rushing yards per game. This average has come on an average of 27.3 rushing attempts (13th).
Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
- In their last five home games, Houston has averaged 21 points per game while allowing 21. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 3-2.
- As the betting underdog, the Texans have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their, straight-up record was 2-1.
- As the betting favorite, the Jaguars have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 4-1.
Prediction
- Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – Houston Texans 21
