Underdog Fantasy Picks
There is nothing quite like Thanksgiving day in America, and the tradition of NFL games on this wonderful day is like no other. It’s one of the best days of the year, and I can’t believe it’s here.
For 2023, let’s take a look at this year’s Thanksgiving slate of games.
- 1:00 PM – Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- 4:30 PM – Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- 08:20 PM – Seattle Seahawks @ San Fransisco 49ers
I always love that first game slate – Although it is the Lions, it just starts out the day great while having football, food and drinks at 12.
Something about it!
Let’s dive into some of our favorite props and make our Thanksgivings even better… We can only hope.
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RB David Montgomery OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (vs GB)
RB David Montgomery is very familiar with an in-division rival, the Green Bay Packers, dating back to the days when he was a Chicago Bear. So, this isn’t all new to him. Plus after a couple of weeks that he has been back, it’s clear he still has a role on this football team and that is going nowhere.
Dating back to 2019, Montgomery averages 71.9 rushing yards a game against Green Bay. That even includes his time with the Bears, and it’s safe to say, he is on the best offensive team he has ever been a part of.
In fact, Montgomery had 121 rushing yards against the Packers in their matchup earlier in the 2023 season (3 TD’s as well…) All signs point to Montgomery dominating this prop, and I’m loving it everywhere I can get it.
K Riley Patterson OVER 1.5 FG’s (vs GB)
Detroit has had one of the most dominating offenses in 2023, and that is always good news for kicker props. Even if teams aren’t able to finish off a drive, just the fact that they can get into field goal position on the field is encouraging.
I like this prop a lot because of the fact it’s a short week, the offense could be sluggish to start which could lead to field goal opportunity.
Patterson has been money this year, hitting 13/15 FG opportunities. He hit 2/2 FG’s against this Packers team in their earlier matchup.
RB Brian Robinson OVER 43.5 Rush Yards (@ DAL)
This is going to be the first matchup between the Commanders and the Cowboys in 2023, so no recent data for us to look at. But, Robinson has been playing fairly well recently.
He’s hit the over on this prop 3 out of the last 4 games, and I’m hoping this trend continues here. With Gibson questionable, it definitely plays a part into this prop. If Gibson is out, I like it even more.
The Cowboys’ defense in 2023 has been allowing on average 74.5 rushing yards per game, which is relatively strong comparatively. But still shows that this is more than doable for the sophomore back.
Everyone tries to have a big game on Turkey Day!
RB Tony Pollard UNDER 63.5 Rushing Yards (vs WAS)
This prop seems high for Pollard, even on Thanksgiving Day. In fact, the Pro Bowl RB has not hit this prop target in over 7 straight weeks. It just blows my mind the season that Tony Pollard is having in 2023. What is going on?
The Commanders have been relatively strong against the run as well, only allowing 86.1 rushing yards per game. With the emergence of backup RB, Rico Dowdle, as of late, that figures also to take away from Pollards’ usage.
The Cowboys have had just such a good offense, despite the lack of usage of the run game. With the Commanders really struggling against the pass, I think the Cowboys hone in on that here in this matchup. With Pollard not hitting this line since September, it oddly feels like a really strong prop here, unfortunately.
QB Geno Smith OVER 0.5 Interceptions (@ SF)
This prop feels inevitable. Smith has thrown 7 interceptions on the year, which isn’t all that bad. But on the road, against one of the league’s best defenses? I think this for sure happens here.
Opposing QBs have actually thrown more INT against the 49ers than TD’s, they have 14 on the season.
Let’s not overthink this one.
RB Zach Charbonnet UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards (@ SF)
Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet is coming off the biggest game of his career, usage-wise, where he saw 15 carries against the Los Angeles Rams last week due to an oblique injury to starting RB, Kenneth Walker.
Although Charbonnet will be the man with Walker’s absence, he gets a very very very tough matchup with the 49ers run defense.
This stout defensive unit has only allowed on average 60.10 rushing yards to opposing backs this season, which is ridiculously good.
Charbonnet should be a good fantasy player down the stretch, but this matchup is too dominating. He misses the over here.
QB Brock Purdy OVER 251.5 Passing Yards (vs SEA)
Purdy has been on a tear recently and has actually hit this prop figure in each of his last four games. That’s the main reason for my confidence here, especially with Deebo back and ready to go.
It does need to be mentioned that the Seahawks do have a great pass defense, they only allow on average 254 passing yards per game. But, with this being a Thanksgiving primetime game and an important one, I think from game script alone, Purdy should be able to hit this.
Given that he’s on a hot streak, gets the Seahawks at home on prime-time turkey day, he’s going over 251.
I hope you have a wonderful day full of family, food, and football. Take a moment to reflect and be grateful for what you have, and let those around you know that too. Enjoy every moment. I hope its amazing.
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