NBA Player Props 11/15
Another week of NBA betting is almost in the books. This week was mediocre going 1-1 on Wednesday due to Bradley Beal missing the game. On Wednesday, Josh Giddey’s assists line was bumped to 6.5, and I decided it was still worth the bet. Unfortunately, he fell just short and finished with exactly 6 assists. Luckily, fading Tyrese Haliburton worked as that bet cashed. However, that is in the past and it is time to move forward. Plenty of props are on the board, but here are the best three I found to start the weekend.
Tyler Herro Over 24.5 Points (-128)
The Miami Heat are 4-6 and are trying to find their place within the NBA and Eastern Conference. After several years of being a contender within the East, it seems like their window is slowly closing. Jimmy Butler is already banged up and Bam Adebayo is having a down season so far. However, there is a major bright spot on this team and that is Tyler Herro.
For the last few seasons, we have all talked about Herro as a player that can break out. However, injuries and his role kept him from making that next jump. This season it is looking as if Herro has put it all together. Herro is averaging 25 PPG while shooting 51% from the field and 48% from three. Yes, 48% from three, and the volume is potent with him shooting almost 7 threes a game.
Herro and the Heat play their second group game of the NBA Cup against the reigning Eastern Conference Cup champions, the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are a bottom-10 team in the league in defensive rating. Herro should take advantage of subpar defense with how hot he has been.
In the two games since Jimmy Butler has been out, Herro scored 26 points then followed that up with a 40-point performance. He has also hit this over in 4 of his last 5 games. Herro is on a tear right now and I want to back him during this hot streak.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-135)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the NBA today. He almost won the MVP award last season and has a great chance to win it this year. SGA is poised to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to another 50+ win season. His scoring prowess is top-notch, despite only averaging 28 PPG instead of 30 PPG like he did the last two seasons. However, OKC is dealing with some injuries and SGA might need to score even more.
Chet Holmgren went down and should be gone for the next few months. That was 16 PPG right there. SGA might need to grab a few of those points and put it on his load. He is facing the Phoenix Suns tonight who started the season on fire, but are cooling off due to the injury of Kevin Durant. One would assume that the offense is going to take a massive hit without KD in the lineup, but the Suns are struggling on defense.
In the three games since KD’s injury, went from a subpar defense to a bottom-3 defense. They are bottom-3 in defensive rating and opponent’s points in the paint. Their defense is starting to spiral and SGA can take advantage of their lack of a paint presence. SGA averages 5.1 FGM in the paint per game on 69% shooting in that area.
The Suns might be on the verge of a skid and SGA and the Thunder might help with the cause. SGA might have a huge game tonight.
Christian Braun Over 13.5 Points (-106)
Christian Braun over on his points is one of the best bets this season. If you were to bet the over, you would have gone 10-0 in his last 10 games. The line itself has bumped up to 13.5 points, but that still might be too low. Braun is averaging 16 PPG this season on 55%/50%/81% shooting splits. He has firmly stepped into the role Kentavious Caldwell-Pope left in the offseason and has already surpassed his production. His athleticism gives him the ability to cut to the rim, but also stay in the dunker spot for when Nikola Jokic posts up.
Braun and the Denver Nuggets face the New Orleans Pelicans, who are just ravaged by so many injuries. They are without half the roster and possess a frontcourt that is too small to contain Jokic. Their centers are young players with no experience or an undersized veteran in Daniel Theis.
The Pelicans are going to need to double Jokic with every post-touch he receives. That should lead to open threes for Braun or him cutting to the rim for an easy finish. This line might bump one day if he continues this pace, but until then I am happy riding with this prop.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
