Money Where Your Mouth Is
Week 11 is where the “pros” and the “joes” are separated. As the playoffs grow near, we are going to see teams FIGHTING to get wins. Let’s lock-in, find some value picks, and profit! Before we do that, we need to check in on our picks record.
- Straight props: 26-16
- Anytime TD: 9-19
- Player Prop Parlays: 3-7
Our previous week’s picks were okay at best. Two straight props hit. However, we were only a few yards short from a sweep and nailing the parlay. Thanks for nothing, Sam Darnold! Our touchdown scorers swung and missed! Tough week there. We will bounce back. And it starts now!
Props
George Pickens Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
I love this spot. A matchup nightmare for the Ravens secondary this week. George Pickens (and the Steelers) are on a roll. Now Pickens will face the worst secondary in the league. Pickens has reached this line in three straight games. I’m going to take the risk that he makes it four straight. It’s too juicy of a matchup!
If you’re feeling risky, move him up to 70+ yards for higher odds!
Bijan Robinson Over 97.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
Not as juicy of a matchup for Bijan here. The Broncos are one of the league’s best rush defenses, allowing 103 a game (7th best in the NFL). But the pass defense is where Bijan will be able to take advantage of the Broncos (10th worst in the NFL). Bijan has topped this number in 7 out of 10 games this season. Bijan has simply been a stud this year and I am happy to put my money on a guy like that.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 241.5 passing yards (-115)
This one is my weekly gut call. We have only seen Tua hit this number in one game this season (out of the 5 he has played). He’s been playing well, whether it looks like it or not. This feels like a good spot for him to light it up. I won’t ignore the fact that the Raiders do have a solid pass defense, allowing less than 200 yards a game. But a 300+ yard game feels very due. Let’s see what the throwin’ Samoan can do this Sunday!
Nick Chubb Over 15.5 rushing attempts (+102 FD)
With his rushing attempts increasing ever since his return to the field, Chubb has a great matchup ahead of him and this number being plus odds is great in my opinion! They gave him 15 carries against the Chargers and 16 in the Ravens game. Both those teams have stout run defenses. The Saints? They do not. Kevin Stefasnky and co would be silly not to feed Nick Chubb this week.
Anytime Touchdown
I’m putting my money on the trustworthy veterans this week. Each of them feels as if they’re in good spots to haul one in this week.
Davante Adams +100
He’s getting endzone targets, simply not converting. Davante has only had one game with less than 9 targets since the trade. The touchdowns are coming.
Cooper Kupp +135
This feels like a let-down spot for the Patriots and a get-right spot for the Rams. And I’m putting my money on Cooper Kupp being part of that. I may even sprinkle some on 2+ touchdowns, we’ll see! For now, he’s due for one.
Justin Jefferson +135
This is a tough choice here because of Jefferon’s matchup, which is the Titans and their league-best 156 passing yards a game defense. That should probably scare me away. It doesn’t, but it should. When you’re one of, if not the best receiver in the league, it doesn’t matter who you are facing. Considering he hasn’t found paydirt in a couple of weeks, this is his time to turn that around!
