NBA Player Props 11/6
After a night off from NBA action, we get the return of basketball tonight, which means it is time to bet on some player props. Monday was not the best, as we went 1-2 on the night. Donovan Mitchell had his worst performance off the season with 14 points total but only scored 1 point in the second half. Then there was Fred VanVleet, who performed his best this season. He finished with 19 points, with 14 coming in the first quarter. The only bright spot was Christian Braun, who soared past his total points. Now we look to regroup with this robust NBA slate tonight. Let’s see what props caught the eye and made the top three.
Josh Giddey Over 5.5 Assists (-142)
The Chicago Bulls have completely changed their offense and it has made them a very fun product. The Bulls were one of the slowest-paced teams last season with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan dribbling the ball for most of the shot clock and turning it into a contested jump shot. They also did not generate a lot of assists, as they finished towards the bottom in APG. Things have flipped as they are the number one team in pace while ranking 6th in APG.
One of the biggest reasons for this improved offense is the addition of Josh Giddey in the offseason. After three years with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Giddey was traded to the Bulls due to fit in OKC. He is not a knockdown shooter, but more of a playmaker that needs the ball in his hands. That did not bode well for a team that has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Now that he is in Chicago, he can play his style of basketball.
Giddey is having a solid season thus far, which includes 6.3 APG. In 7 games, Giddey has hit this line 4 times. With Zach LaVine most likely missing the game, expect Giddey to have the ball in his hands more tonight. If the Bulls keep it close with the Dallas Mavericks, expect Giddey to soar over this line.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers do battle tonight in Memphis. There are some stars in this game, such as Ja Morant, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis. However, I looked at Jaren Jackson Jr.’s lines and decided it was best to fade him. JJJ is a good defender who can score from time to time, but he still has trouble with fouling and cannot rebound despite his physical stature. Some would think this line is too low for JJJ, but the reality is that he has only exceeded this number twice and it was the two times he scored more than 20 points.
He also has to face Anthony Davis, who is playing at an MVP level. Davis is leading the leagues in FTA by a wide margin. JJJ is going to be the man tasked with trying to stop Davis. However, one can’t stop Davis at the moment. He will also be guarded by Davis, who is stronger and just as long as JJJ is. This is just a tough matchup for JJJ to get anything going. Unless he scores a good amount tonight, I don’t see him reaching this number.
Chet Holmgren Over 17.5 Points (-105)
On the opening week of the NBA season, we saw Chet Holmgren torch Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. The second-year big man put up 25 points and 14 rebounds in a dominating performance. He looks to replicate that same game tonight against the Nuggets.
The first four games of the season saw Chet easily hit the over on this prop. However, in his last three games, he scored 14 points or less. Why is that? The OKC Thunder are too good. They are smoking teams and Chet does not have to play most of the game. In those last three games I mentioned, Chet played less than 30 minutes in each of them.
I believe that trend ends tonight by facing a conference rival. Jokic needs to do everything on offense and with no Jamal Murray or Aaron Gordon, his load becomes heavier. This would lead to him taking breaks on defense and not giving 100% effort on that side of the court. Chet should be able to get open looks at will if Jokic is his primary defender.
The Nuggets allow the 5th-most PPG to centers. Chet already dropped 25 points on them. This is a no-brainer bet.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
