New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview
AFC Conference Matchup
Point Spread: Jets -1.5 | Total Points: 38.5
The Jets are looking to end a three-game losing streak when they face the Steelers on the road in week 7. New York’s record now stands at 2-4, putting them 3rd in the AFC East. They are 1-1 in division games and 2-2 in conference play. Heading into week 7, our power rankings have the Jets 11th, and they have a 47.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 13.6% chance of winning the division.
New York is 2-4 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +0.8 points per game. They have failed to cover in three straight games, including a 23-20 loss to the Bills in week 6. The O/U record in Jets games is 2-3-1, with an average of 36.8 points scored per game.
Following two straight losses, the Steelers bounced back in week 6 with a 32-13 road win over the Raiders, improving their record to 4-2. Pittsburgh was a 3.5-point favorite and covered the spread with ease. The combined scoring of 45 points went over the 37-point line. Prior to this, the Steelers had dropped two in a row, including a 20-17 home loss to the Cowboys in week 5.
Heading into week 7, the Steelers rank 16th in our power rankings and have a 69.7% chance of making the playoffs. They are 4-2 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.3 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 2-4, with their games averaging 35 points compared to an average line of 39.5.
New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers History
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Jets have the edge in their recent matchups against Pittsburgh, going 2-1. In the last three games New York is averaging 17 points per game compared to 20 for the Steelers.
- Across the Jets last five road games, the team averaged 19 points per game while allowing 22. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
- When looking at their past three matchups at home, Pittsburgh has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 23 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
- The last ten games that Pittsburgh was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.
- Through their previous five contests as the betting favorite, the Jets have a strong record of 3-2. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 2-3.
Notable Injuries
New York Jets
- Kenny Yeboah – Groin (Out)
- Michael Carter II – Back (Questionable)
- Jermaine Johnson – Achilles (Out)
- Chuck Clark – Ankle (Out)
- Wes Schweitzer – Hand (Out)
- Haason Reddick – Personal (Out)
- Mike Williams – Non Injury Related (personal) (Questionable)
- Malik Taylor – Undisclosed (Out)
- D.J. Reed – Groin (Questionable)
- Will McDonald IV – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Morgan Moses – Knee (Questionable)
- Chazz Surratt – Heel (Probable)
- Tyler Conklin – Hip (Questionable)
- Aaron Rodgers – Ankle (Probable)
- Marcus Riley – Undisclosed (Out)
- Jimmy Ciarlo – Knee (Out)
- Jordan Travis – Undisclosed (Out)
- Zaire Barnes – Ankle (Out)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Alex Highsmith – Groin (Probable)
- Ben Skowronek – Shoulder (Out)
- DeMarvin Leal – Neck (Out)
- Nick Herbig – Hamstring (Out)
- Dylan Cook – Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Cordarrelle Patterson – Ankle (Questionable)
- Tyler Matakevich – Hamstring (Out)
- Damontae Kazee – Ankle (Questionable)
- Cameron Sutton – Suspension (Out)
- Cameron Johnston – Knee (Out)
- James Daniels – Achilles (Out)
- Nate Herbig – Shoulder (Out)
- Cole Holcomb – Undisclosed (Out)
- Roman Wilson – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Cory Trice Jr. – Hamstring (Out)
- Zach Frazier – Ankle (Out)
- Troy Fautanu – Knee (Out)
- Ryan Watts – Stinger (Out)
- David Perales – Knee (Out)
- Logan Lee – Calf (Out)
- Najee Harris – Ribs (Probable)
Keys To Victory: New York Jets
So far this season, the Jets are 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.8, and 22nd in yards per game with 304.3. New York has been pass-heavy, ranking 3rd in the league in passing attempts, but they sit 16th in passing yards per game (217.2). On the ground, they rank 30th in rushing yards per game, with 87.2, on 22.3 attempts per game.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 294 yards (23/35) with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in week 6 against the Bills. Breece Hall had 113 rushing yards on 18 carries, and Allen Lazard led the team with 6 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Jets scored 20 points, failing to score in the 4th quarter, and converted 4 of 12 3rd downs.
In their 23-20 loss to the Bills, the Jets allowed Buffalo to convert on 45.5% of their third down attempts. The Jets gave up 149 rushing yards on 33 attempts, resulting in 4.5 yards per attempt. Despite holding Buffalo to 210 passing yards, the Jets allowed two passing touchdowns and a completion percentage of 76%.
New York’s defense managed two sacks in the game but lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials, both by a margin of -3. The Jets will be looking to shore up their run defense and improve on their third-down defense in their next game.
Keys To Victory: Pittsburgh Steelers
With an average of 20.7 points per game, the Steelers are 19th in scoring, and based on our power rankings, we have them 17th in the league. So far, they are 26th in yards per game with 298.3. Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards per game, with 131.5. In the passing game, they are 27th in attempts and 28th in yards, averaging 166.8 per game. Pittsburgh ranks 18th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 39% success rate, and they are 13th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 6, the Steelers scored 32 points in their win over the Raiders, with 10 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Justin Fields threw for 145 yards on 14/24 passing, while Najee Harris rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. George Pickens led the team with 53 receiving yards on 3 catches.
In their 32-13 win over the Raiders, the Steelers’ defense was outstanding on third downs, allowing just an 18.2% conversion rate. They limited Las Vegas to 57 rushing yards on only 19 attempts and gave up just 275 total yards. The Steelers defended the pass well, allowing only 218 yards and holding the Raiders to a 67.5% completion rate.
Pittsburgh’s defense also came up with one interception and allowed just one passing touchdown. Although they only managed one sack, the Steelers were effective in disrupting the Raiders’ offense and controlling the game throughout.
Betting Trends
- Through their last ten road contests, the Jets offense has averaged 15 points per game while allowing an average of 22. New York posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 3-6-1 ATS.
- The Steelers are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
- As the betting underdog, the Steelers have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 3-2.
- Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Jets have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-3.
Prediction
- Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – New York Jets 21
