Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview

Posted on October 16, 2024

Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview

Non-Conference NFL Matchups

Point Spread: Broncos -2.5 | Total Points: 37

After two straight wins, the Broncos couldn’t keep their momentum going in week 6, falling 23-16 at home to the Chargers. This dropped Denver to 3-3 on the season, putting them 3rd in the AFC West. They rank 25th in our NFL power rankings and have a 24.5% chance of making the playoffs heading into week 7.

Against the spread, the Broncos are 4-2, with a scoring margin of +2.7 points per game. Their O/U record is 3-3, with the over hitting in two straight games.

Following a 2-0 start to their season, the Saints have now dropped four straight games, including a 51-27 home loss to the Buccaneers in week 6. New Orleans was unable to cover the 3.5-point spread, and the 78 combined points easily hit the over (42.5). The Saints now sit at 2-4, putting them 3rd in the NFC South. They rank 29th in our NFL power rankings and have a 15.4% chance of making the playoffs.

New Orleans has a +3.3 scoring margin this season and is 3-3 against the spread. They are 1-1 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 4-2, with their games averaging 52.3 points (44.2 O/U line).

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints History

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Broncos have the edge in their recent matchups against New Orleans, going 2-1. In the last three games Denver is averaging 20 points per game compared to 22 for the Saints.

Across their last three road contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 18 points per game.
New Orleans has a 1-2 record in their last three home games. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 23. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Saints have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.

Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos

Heading into week 7, the Broncos rank 30th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.7, and sit 29th in total yards per game with 278.2. Denver ranks 27th in passing yards per game (170.8) on 33 attempts per game, which is 12th in the league. On the ground, they average 107.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd, with 24.8 rushing attempts per game.

Bo Nix threw for 216 yards (19/33) and 2 touchdowns in week 6, with one interception. Devaughn Vele led the team with 4 catches for 78 yards, while Nix also led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 6 carries. Denver scored all 16 of their points in the 4th quarter against the Chargers.

In their 23-16 loss to the Chargers, the Broncos’ defense allowed 350 total yards and 128 rushing yards on 38 attempts. They gave up 222 passing yards, with the Chargers completing 21 passes for a 61.8% completion percentage. Denver’s defense managed three sacks and held the Chargers to a 38.9% third-down conversion rate.

The Broncos’ defense also allowed one touchdown and struggled themselves on third downs, allowing the Chargers to convert 61.1% of their third downs. Despite this, they did win the tackles for loss and quarterback hit differentials in the game.

Keys To Victory: New Orleans Saints

Currently, the Saints rank 14th in our offensive power rankings, and they are 4th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 27.8, and they rank 18th in yards per game with 319.8. New Orleans is 22nd in passing attempts per game and 21st in passing yards, averaging 200.3 per game. On the ground, they rank 10th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards, with 119.5 per game. The Saints have been strong on 3rd down, converting 47.1% of their attempts, which ranks 3rd in the league, but they are 25th in red zone conversion percentage.

Spencer Rattler took over at quarterback in week 6, throwing for 243 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions while being sacked 5 times. Alvin Kamara had 40 rushing yards on 13 carries, and Foster Moreau led the team in receiving with 54 yards. The Saints struggled in week 6, scoring all 27 of their points in the 2nd quarter. Derek Carr is questionable for week 7 with an oblique injury, and Chris Olave is also questionable after missing practice with a concussion.

In their 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers, the Saints’ defense gave up 594 yards. They struggled to stop the run, allowing 277 rushing yards on just 35 attempts. Despite forcing three interceptions, the Saints allowed four passing touchdowns and 317 yards through the air. Offensively, they allowed the Buccaneers to convert on 60% of their third down attempts. The Saints’ defense managed only one sack in the game.

Betting Trends

Across their last three road contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 18 points per game.
Through their last ten home games, New Orleans’s ATS record is just 5-5. However, their overall record was 4-6, and they averaged 24 points per game.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Saints have a straight up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.