Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

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Thursday night in Denver brings us an interesting game, to put it kindly. The home team is coming off a loss to the then-winless Raiders, and the Colts are also trying to recover quickly from a home defeat to Tennessee. A quick turnaround and some key injuries on both sides make for a tough matchup on paper.

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

• Game: Colts at Broncos
• Spread: Broncos -3.5 | 43

 

Michael Pittman Over 68.5 Yards Receiving

Colts star receiver Michael Pittman will look to recover from a quiet afternoon in Indianapolis last Sunday, as he was limited to 3 catches for 31 yards. This is mostly due to Matt Ryan favoring his tight ends and rookie 2nd round pick Alec Pierce who has had back-to-back 60+ yard games. In his breakout year last season, on the 4 occasions he had 3 or fewer receptions and minimal yardage, Pittman followed it up with double the number of receptions and over double the yardage, so expect a bounce back from him. I’d be comfortable taking Pittman over 70+ yards to continue this trend. Turnovers and game script could see the Colts behind and playing catch up, and that gives Pierce the chance to continue his hot start as well. I can see him exceeding 30+ yards in this one.

Bet the Under

The Denver Broncos open as slight favorites in what is likely going to be a low-scoring affair. The under/over line sits at 43.5 points, a figure which has only been eclipsed once in four games, their last trip to Vegas. Their problem is that although they have one of the strongest defenses in the league (5th in pass defense, and up until Josh Jacobs torched them for 144 yards they had the 6th best rush defense), they rank 28th in touchdowns scored. Similarly, the Colts are 6th in rushing yards allowed (89.5 ypg) and 10th in passing yards allowed (207.5 ypg), but 31st in touchdowns scored. With both teams allowing less than 300 combined yards to their opponents (Denver 285 & Indy 297), the under looks far too enticing.

Injuries have hit both teams this week, with the sorely missed linebacker Shaquille Leonard entering the concussion protocol after his brief return against the Titans. The Colts are tied for 4th worst in sacks per game, with only 1.8, which isn’t helped with the absence of Leonard; Jonathan Taylor is also struggling with ankle and turf toe issues and is questionable. On the other hand, the Broncos are tied 5th for most sacks with 2.8 per game, and Matt Ryan has been sacked 15 times already this year. Unless something changes quickly, you can bank on Matt Ryan taking some hits in this one, and with his 9 fumbles already this year, paired with his 5 interceptions, I firmly believe they’ll be turning the ball over on more than one occasion.

Matt Ryan Over 0.5 INT

For the Broncos, running back Javonte Williams tore his ACL & LCL, leaving a fumble-prone Melvin Gordon and former Viking UDFA Mike Boone. In the last game after Williams’ injury, Boone did see 3 targets out of the backfield over Gordon, though I believe this to be more likely due to Gordon’s previous fumble. This took Gordon to 4 fumbles this season, whilst Boone has only seen 3 targets in his career one other time (vs Chicago 2019); they also signed Latavius Murray to the roster on Tuesday. This may see Russell Wilson lean on his receiving core more than usual.

Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Yards Receiving

Russell Wilson has definitely had a mixed start to his Broncos career, only topping 250+ yards in the opener against the Seahawks; though his yardage is lower than most, he’s only seen 1 turnover so far this season. His favorite target without doubt has been Courtland Sutton, who had his quietest game on paper so far on Sunday with 5 receptions on 7 targets, for 52 yards and a touchdown. Sutton has seen a 30+ yard reception in 3 out of 4 games so far this season, so if you’re not sure whether he’ll have a high-scoring game, his longest reception prop is definitely a nice alternative for anywhere over 25+ yards. With the shaky situation with regards to the Broncos running backs, I see Sutton getting plenty of the ball in this one.

 

TNF Prop Bet Recap

• Under 43.5 points (-110)
• Matt Ryan over 0.5 INT. (-121)
• Courtland Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
• Michael Pittman over 65.5 yards receiving. (-114)

Bonus Stat: The Broncos have allowed 6/8 tight ends to have at least 3+ receptions in their 4 games; only OJ Howard (1) and Colby Parkinson (2) did not. Ryan loves his tight ends. Kylen Granson over 2.5 receptions to continue his steady start to the season.